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000
FXUS65 KVEF 180412
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
911 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A STORM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH STILL MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA THIS
EVENING WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND INTO NYE COUNTY. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE JUST BEGINNING TO POP UP IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS OF 9 PM AS WELL. STILL DO NOT EXPECTED ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY BUT THEY
COULD GET PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE VALLEY.
OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN PRETTY LIGHT AND OUTFLOW WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO BAD EITHER
WITH MAYBE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. THE INHERITED FORECAST HANDLES
THE CURRENT TRENDS PRETTY WELL SO FAR AND UPDATES ARE NOT PLANNED
THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
315 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LINCOLN COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST TONIGHT...DRYING WILL BE SEEN
FROM THE WEST WITH GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. A SECOND WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
UTAH LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE DISTRICT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WINDS TURNING TO
THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WINDS APPEAR
TO ONLY BE IN THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY WITH THE WINDY
CONDITIONS BEING ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. DRY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
UNDER THE DRY CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES ON
SATURDAY AND AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN NEAR
NORMAL READINGS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SO NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL ALSO BE SEEN
ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER LOW ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN TUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ENHANCED WINDS AND POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS FUELS
CONTINUE TO DRY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE LOW MAY HAVE WORKED
ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. BUT FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...COOL A FEW DEGREES TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THEN BELOW
NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTH. THE
OVERALL FLOW WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA AS WELL...WITH POTENTIALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX GUSTS UP TO 30KTS
AND AVERAGE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
BY LATE EVENING...DROPPING BELOW 10KTS AND REMAINING THAT WAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS IN SOME AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE CLOUD BASES COULD LOWER TO 5K-8K FEET
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FEET
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-10K FEET IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN NYE.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HARRISON
PREV DISCUSSION...JENSEN/SALMEN

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