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000
FXUS65 KVEF 160249
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
748 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMER...DRIER...AND CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...CLOUDS THICKENED QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE SKY COVER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.  -HARRISON-

.PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE...SAN
BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...THESE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH`S AND CRITICAL FUELS TO CREATE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE
UPGRADED THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH
THIS AFTERNOON`S PACKAGE...AND EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY...WHERE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS...THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DEPARTS AND A MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF LINCOLN AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER IN
DRYING THINGS OUT HERE. OTHERWISE WITH A NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP EXPECT DRIER AND STABLE AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. WE MAY GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN WARM TO
ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. A BLEND OF MAX TEMPS OFF OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...MOS GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF
AND GFS WAS USED WHICH WAS CLOSE TO WHAT CONTINUITY HAD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. LATEST MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW BUT GENERALLY HAVE THE SYSTEM
DROPPING DOWN INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CURRENTLY SO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS MEANS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OVERALL EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
15Z THURSDAY OR SO AT 8-14 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. BETWEEN 15Z
THURSDAY AND 20Z THURSDAY WINDS AT THE SURFACE MAY BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AT 5-8 KTS AT TIMES. ONCE
THE INVERSION BREAKS WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TO 16-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET TONIGHT BECOMING BKN
AOA 15K FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH A FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS
8K-10K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...IN THE MOJAVE DESERT EXPECT WINDS TO BE MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 20Z
THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WINDS SHOULD
MAINLY FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS TONIGHT AT 5-10 KTS THEN FAVOR A
WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY AT 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
NEAR AND CANYON OPENINGS IN THE OWENS VALLEY. LOCAL AREAS OF BLDU
MAY REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS. SCT
SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 5K-8K FEET. OTHERWISE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT TO 8K-12K FEET.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A SOMEWHAT CALMER DAY TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER STORM APPROACHES THE REGION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35-45
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE...SAN BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH RH`S DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DID
UPGRADE AZZ102 TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND ADDED NVZ465 TO THE WARNING
AS WELL. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE WARNING INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS. CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR NVZ465.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR NVZ016-019-020-
     022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ524.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR CAZ523.
&&

$$

WOLCOTT/STACHELSKI/STUMPF

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