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000
FXUS65 KVEF 161052
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
350 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WARMER...DRIER...AND CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUPPORT THE INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INLAND AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM AND SWINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER
40 MPH ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION. THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS
AND MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE IT MAY BE A LITTLE MARGINAL FOR THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TO SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH...BUT FAVORABLE
AREAS ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS INLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
IS FORECAST TO BE DIRECTLY OVER NEVADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF CLARK COUNTY...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES TODAY THEN DROP
ANOTHER 10 OR SO DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME NORTH BREEZES
DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A BRIEF INDUCED RIDGE
OVERHEAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT
DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
THEN PARKS OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES ALLOWING A MEAN TROUGH TO
LINGER OVER THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET UP A BREEZY PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TODAY THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 10-15
KNOTS. AFTER ABOUT 17Z THE INVERSION WILL BREAK AND ALLOW STRONGER
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OF 16-22 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE WIND SPEED WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. FEW CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL TRENDS. IN THE MOJAVE DESERT..WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AFTER 18Z TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED
AFTER SUNSET AND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLDU ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...AFTER AROUND 18Z WINDS
SHOULD MOVE TO A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT AROUND 8-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FAVOR TYPICAL
DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT.  SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER A SOMEWHAT CALMER DAY TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35-45 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE...SAN BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH RH`S DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
BRING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ465.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NVZ016-019-020-022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR AZZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ524.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     CAZ523.
&&

$$

ADAIR/METZGER

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