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000
FXUS65 KVEF 130417 AAB
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
916 PM PDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.UPDATE...ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING FOR ESMERALDA COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT
9 PM AS THERE ARE NO OBSERVATIONS IN THE ZONE MEETING CRITERIA. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED IN
THOSE ZONES AS WELL. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA
AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA.

BAND OF MID/HI CLOUDS IS SLOWLY TRANSITIONING EAST. THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER ERN SAN BERNARDINO AND
CLARK COUNTIES...WHILE MOHAVE COUNTY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 KTS BY 09Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 18Z
THURSDAY...BECOMING 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 22-28 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
WITH CLOUDS AOA 12K FEET PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY 15Z THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20-30 KTS. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS AND ALONG EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS OVER AREA MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV UPDATE...
706 PM PDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH NEVER REALLY
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYE...LINCOLN AND WESTERN CLARK
COUNTIES. WINDS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING...SO HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WAS OUT UNTIL 9 PM PDT
EARLY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS CARRYING SMOKE FROM THE HATHAWAY WILDFIRE...NORTH OF
BANNING CA NR THE SAN BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE COUNTY LINE...INTO THE
MORONGO BASIN THIS EVENING. SPOTTER IN THE MORONGO VALLEY REPORTING
THAT THE SMOKE IS LOWER THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES. WITH
THIS UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
MORONGO BASIN TONIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
319 PM PDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...SLOW MOVING BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS WERE CROSSING THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON MODEL 400-200 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES, THIS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT
MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH CLOUDS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING IT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ACROSS OUR AREA NOW TO BE THIS EVENING WITH THE
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A JET STREAK COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS
THE LATEST MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT AS STRONG OF WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY. BASED ON THE POSITION
OF THE JET STREAK FOR THURSDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. WHILE
THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 700 MB WINDS OF 20-35 KTS OVER THESE AREAS,
THE THOUGHT IS ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER
WILL BE ON EXPOSED RIDGETOPS OR NOT FOR THE DURATION THAT MEETS WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (WHICH IS AT LEAST 3 HOURS) OR IN A LARGE ENOUGH
AREA. AS A RESULT, I HELD OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR TOMORROW.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE 25-35 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES ON
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PULLED EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL WEAKEN, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL. IT IS POSSIBLE LAS VEGAS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT THE CENTURY
MARK AT MCCARRAN ON FRIDAY WHICH WOULD SNAP OUR 11 DAY STREAK IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS COUNTING TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. VERY DRY AIR IS SHOWN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AT BEST EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARMING FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL KEEP A UPPER LOW JUST OFF OR OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE CWA. MINOR IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE WINDS
SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE THIS
EVENING FOR ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE LATEST MODELS DO
NOT INDICATE WINDS BEING AS STRONG NOR ACROSS AS LARGE OF AN AREA ON
THURSDAY IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INYO FOREST ZONE WHICH
WOULD MAKE REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION MUCH MORE
DIFFICULT. THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRIER
THERE ON THURSDAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
LOWER AS WELL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS
AREA.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING ASHORE. THIS COULD CREATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ON THAT COULD RESULT IN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SEEING OR BEING CLOSE TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR NVZ461>465.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PIERCE
AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...STACHELSKI/JENSEN

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