000
FXUS65 KVEF 230303
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
803 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AND WILL DROP OFF A BIT MORE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AS
WINDS HAD SUBSIDED AT MOST STATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10-20 KTS.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND DIRECTION
WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT LULL
OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING ...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
258 PM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST AS A LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT A TOUCH NORTHWARD EACH DAY
RESULTING IN SOME DECREASE IN WINDS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY
ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AND REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND
7 PM RESPECTIVELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY BUT COULD GET CLOSE IN MOHAVE COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES AND RESULTS IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE VARIABLE AND MINIMAL. THE
ONLY NOTABLE FEATURE IS A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGHER ELEVATION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK TO WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...STRONGER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LULL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL NOT DROP TO BELOW
10KTS. THURSDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 30KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG#1 OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...LULL
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING OVER FIRE WEATHER
ZONE 102 AND 465 WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF MOHAVE COUNTY SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR ZONE 102. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW/HARRISON/KENNEDY

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