000
FXUS65 KVEF 162154
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
254 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. WARMER...DRIER...
AND CALMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT
SLOW TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEGUN TO NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WILL KEEP ALL WINDS AND FIRE HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 03Z ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE SPRING AND SHEEP
MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
MOHAVE. AS A RESULT I DID BUMP UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN THESE LOCATIONS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOLER NORTH WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEARING
SKIES...WARMER TEMPERATURES...CALMER WINDS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WHILE THIS SPRING HAS NOT BEEN AS WINDY WE MAY MAKE UP
FOR THIS NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD
BRING A PUSH OF NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT AS WELL AS LOWER
HEIGHTS ENOUGH THAT TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ENOUGH TO GENERATE NORTH WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ON MONDAY IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MAINLY IN THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE HERE MONDAY EVENING AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX.

THE LATEST MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
MOVING IN ON TUESDAY. THE RISE IN HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS BACK TO 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS LOW STARTS TO DIG SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WINDS SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS THEN.

THE LOW NEAR BRITISH COLUMBIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON AND OREGON. AT THIS TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LOOK
LIKELY FOR OUR AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE JET STREAM WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH WITH THE CORE OF THE
JET GETTING CLOSER TO THE AREA BY NEXT THURSDAY. WHILE IT IS A BIT
TOUGH TO GET TOO SPECIFIC THIS FAR OUT WITH WIND SPEEDS AS THE
ORIENTATION OF THE JET AND ALIGNMENT OF THE WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT
MAY VARY, PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS LOOK A GIVEN IN THIS TIME FRAME AND
I HAVE ADJUSTED UP WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AT THE LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS OF 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER WINDS LIKELY ON
NEXT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE JET GETS CLOSER. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A TREND DOWN AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER AND
HEIGHTS FALL. AREAS IN NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS
NEAR YUCCA VALLEY MAY ALSO SEE SOME FURTHER COOLING AS THE MARINE
LAYER STARTS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE SOCAL COAST AND OOZES IN THROUGH
THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN PASSES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
SUSTAINED AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 22-32 KTS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY OR
SO THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-22 KTS.
MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 18K-25K FEET WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS
8K-12K FEET. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY BETWEEN 15Z FRIDAY AND 03Z SATURDAY BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OVER THE VALLEY. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT IN ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO
COUNTIES EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS IN
NORTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL AS OVER HIGHER RIDGETOPS AND
NEAR CANYON OPENINGS. LOCAL AREAS OF BLDU MAY REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES.
IN ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS AT 6-12 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN...CLARK AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. BASES AS LOW AS 5K-8K FEET
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY BKN
CLOUDS AOA 18K-25K FEET WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS AS LOW AS 8K-12K FEET.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
MOHAVE...SAN BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
COMBINE WITH RH`S DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BRING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT. CALMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN BY TUESDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ465.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ016-019-020-022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ001-003.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ524.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ523.
&&

$$

WOLCOTT/STACHELSKI

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