000
FXUS65 KVEF 181000
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY. A STORM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSISTING OVER SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY THIS MORNING SHOULD BRUSH
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH 18Z AS THE TAIL OF THE TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH TODAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH SOME
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER NEAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA TONIGHT THEN
OVER UTAH AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF NORTH BREEZES WILL FOLLOW
WITH ENHANCED WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH ON WIND SPEEDS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY A FEW DEGREES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH READINGS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL
START PUSHING EAST TUESDAY  AS A STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHES TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL BE NOTICED ON TUESDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW WILL PARK ITSELF OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL STALL
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL DROP
SOMEWHAT EACH DAY THE COLDER AIR IS NOT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT AS IT LOOKS NOW
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE MODELS THEN
INDICATE THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST BUT KEEP A GENERAL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO QUICKLY AND KEEP READINGS CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-8KTS
THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NORTHEAST WINDS
UP TO 7 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z OTHERWISE WINDS WILL LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 12K FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MORMON MESA CORRIDOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH
TODAY AND FAVOR A WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10-12K FEET ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE OVER LINCOLN COUNTY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW

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