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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 192336
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

For this weekend, there will be a slight cooling trend with
isolated showers and thunderstorms focused over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth Counties on Saturday. By next week, dry and warm weather
returns to the Borderland with high temperatures several degrees
above average and breezy to windy conditions each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with quiet
and warm weather expected through the remainder of today. Isolated
rain chances with slightly cooler temperatures return to the area
this weekend as a back door frontal boundary ebb and flows over the
Borderland.

Zonal flow regime and quiet weather has settled in across the
Borderland Region. This means warm temperatures, dry conditions, and
light afternoon breezes for the remainder of today. High
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 80s
for most of the El Paso metro.

For the weekend, a frontal boundary that dove south across the Great
Plains and High Plains region yesterday, infiltrated areas along and
east of the Rio Grande Valley this morning. But as we head into the
afternoon hours, the front and it`s moisture will retreat back to
the east. By tonight and into early Saturday morning, this boundary
will make another push westward roughly reaching the Continental
Divide by Saturday afternoon. Dew point temperatures will be
noticeably higher, in the 30s and 40s. This moisture coupled with an
approaching upper level shortwave will promote increased chances (20-
40 percent PoPs) of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
These low-end rain/storm chances will be limited to eastern Otero
and Hudspeth counties where the deeper moisture values will lie.

As this boundary ebbs-and-flows across Far West TX and Southern NM,
the easterly push along and just behind this boundary will lead to
gusty winds Friday night/early Saturday morning and then again
Saturday evening/night, especially along the western slopes of area
mountains and desert sky islands.

Upper level ridging and southwesterly/westerly flow will return
early next week, drying out the low-levels across the region.
Temperatures will increase back above the seasonal average for the
first half of next week with breezy winds each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected trough the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW-SCT250. There will be periods of SKC. The
winds will be breezy (10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts) and
from the SW at first, before becoming light AOB 10 kts while
continuing out from the SW around 02Z. The winds will become
breezy by around 18Z. There will be no reduction in the VSBY
across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Fire weather conditions will be LOW through the weekend. Min RH
values will remain below critical thresholds (<15 percent) for areas
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday, with further
increases in Min RH values on Sunday areawide. Low level winds will
be light to low-end breezy through this period, staying below
critical thresholds. Smoke ventilation rates will be Good to Very
Good through the weekend.

Although probabilities are low and parameters aren`t eye popping as
of now, it`s worth mentioning dry lightning could possibly pose a
threat this weekend, especially over the Sacs. Areas along and east
of the Sacramento Mtn crest have higher probabilities (20-40%) of
seeing wetting rains if storms develop. However, areas west of the
crest where guidance has a tight dew point depression gradient could
see a rogue storm or two produce isolated instances of cloud to
ground lightning. Like I said, confidence remains LOW but something
to keep an eye on over the next few days as the dryline makes an
appearance for the first time this season. Again confidence is LOW.

For next week, the region will experience a drying trend, with
warming temperatures and increasing winds each day. Elevated to near-
Critical fire weather conditions will exist Tuesday through Friday
of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  57  85  52  79 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  77  45  69 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               53  87  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  80  45  77 /   0  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  56  34  55 /   0  50  10  10
Truth or Consequences    53  82  50  79 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              49  76  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   49  84  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       57  85  50  77 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                48  75  44  71 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             51  86  47  79 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               49  75  45  69 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   52  86  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             51  83  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           56  83  51  77 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range            49  83  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                    50  86  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 55  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                51  79  47  74 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  42  60  37  64 /   0  40  10   0
Mescalero                45  66  38  67 /   0  40  10   0
Timberon                 41  65  35  63 /   0  30  10   0
Winston                  46  75  44  73 /   0  10   0   0
Hillsboro                49  82  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                48  82  45  78 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             44  77  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   46  79  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               49  78  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  49  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   49  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  51  83  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           50  82  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira