National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KGLD 192351
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
551 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM STILL EXPECT A FEW TO LINGER EVEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A VIRTUAL REPEAT...WITH ANOTHER VORT LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
CONSEQUENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY LIMITED...LESS THAN
500 J/KG IS FORECAST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY MID/UPPER 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH...MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH WEDNESDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS
FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS ONE LAST DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AS WAS
THE CASE YESTERDAY IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW
INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KCMK
TERMINALS...THOUGH LOWER CONDITIONS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT IF A
TERMINAL IS IMPACTED BY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS KGLD
TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO 35KT POSSIBLE BASED ON
RADAR/UPSTREAM OBS. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE INSTABILITY...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SHORTWAVE GUIDANCE INDICATING BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTH OVER BOTH
TERMINALS...SO I INCLUDED ADDITIONAL VCSH GROUP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO COVER THIS. CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AFTER 12Z TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAFS.

PREVAILING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10K BY
03Z...AND THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 30KT AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR