Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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967 FXUS62 KGSP 070741 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 341 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A summerlike weather pattern lingers through mid-week with mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms expected. Temperatures will trend well above normal through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of a strong cold front on Thursday. Activity may linger through early Friday as the cold front pushes east of the western Carolinas. Drier conditions and below normal temperatures return for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday: A weak shortwave trough will remain over the western Carolinas through daybreak, keeping convection around for portions of the forecast area. Latest radar mosaic loops show scattered showers, with some embedded thunder at times, across the NC Piedmont and Foothills and across the eastern SC Upstate. Some isolated activity lingers this morning along the NC/TN border and the SW NC mtns as well. Have PoPs gradually decreasing through daybreak as the trough gradually pushes east. Lows this morning will end up around 10 degrees above climo thanks to cloud cover and precip. upper riding will build across the Southeast today leading to much warmer temperatures as well as a lower coverage of diurnal convection. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the lower 80s in the mtn valleys and the mid to upper 80s east of the mtns. This will yield highs around 8-10 degrees above climo. CAMs agree that isolated storms will develop mid to late afternoon across the NC mtns and Foothills before pushing east into the NC Piedmont late this afternoon into early this evening. With the rest of the forecast area expected to remain dry, went with chance PoPs across western NC for today. The SPC Day 1 Severe Wx Outlook shows a Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms across western NC today. This make sense as 25-35 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and up to 2,500 J/kg of SBCAPE in place this afternoon will allow for severe storm development. Any lingering convection this evening should quickly wane around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Another round of overnight convection may develop as a cold front slowly approaches out of the west. However, with CAMs not in agreement on shower and thunderstorm activity, confidence will remain very low regarding tonight`s PoPs. Lows tonight should end up around 13-15 degrees above climo, especially if cloud cover and convection manage to develop. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 am EDT Tuesday: Convection may be ongoing at the start of the short term...and in fact the highest PoPs for Wed will be in the morning. An elevated mixed layer is forecast to advect into the area from the southwest during the afternoon/evening. This will act to impressively steepen mid-level lapse rates...to the tune of 7.5 C/ km. However, it will also act to cap the atmosphere, as forecast soundings depict a strengthening inversion between 5 and 7 kft. As a result, most model guidance...in particular the convection-allowing models...have very little in the way of a convective response across our area Wed PM. Having said that, the afternoon air mass will actually become quite volatile due to the cooling aloft and strong insolation/hot boundary layer (max temps of around 90 across much of the Piedmont), with sbCAPE of around 3000 J/kg expected during mid/late afternoon. If a couple of cells are able to initiate in this environment...perhaps before capping becomes too strong during mid-afternoon...they are likely to become strong-to-severe, with deep layer shear of ~35 kts suggesting good potential for supercellular structures. If anything, forecast soundings indicate stronger capping Wed night into early Thu. However, convection originating from the very unstable and strongly sheared pre-frontal environment to our west could certainly make a run toward our western areas at any point during this time frame. Convective chances then ramp up across our area during the daylight hours Thursday as frontal zone pushes in from the west...most likely during peak heating. The forecast is somewhat muddled due to the potential for early day convection cooling/stabilizing the atmosphere...at the very least, more in the way of cloud cover is expected on Thu that will act to somewhat inhibit heating/destabilization. However, while the cap is forecast to be eliminated by the daylight hours Thu, a remnant elevated mixed layer regime is still expected to result in rather steep mid-level lapse rates, so it won`t take a great deal of heating to yield at least moderate levels of sbCAPE during the afternoon. Shear parameters will only continue to improve, with 0-6km bulk shear of 40-45 kts expected. Westerly/quasi-boundary-normal shear vectors once again suggest the potential for supercell structures and perhaps smaller linear segments...with low level shear parameters being adequate for perhaps a couple of tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging downbursts. Convection is expected to come to quick end Thu evening as a drier air mass advects into the area in the wake of the front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 am EDT Tuesday: The 00Z GFS is an outlier in its depiction of a potent short wave trough digging into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians on Friday (other guidance is considerably farther north). As a result of this, the GFS solution would have a surface wave develop across the baroclinic zone across the Deep South, with additional rounds of convection making a run for our forecast area during the day Fri. Again, this is an outlier, but there`s enough a signal in deterministic and ensemble guidance to include chance PoPs during the day. The remainder of the extended should be cooler and much drier as a long wave trough becomes established across the East. Surface dewpoints in the 40s...possibly in the 30s across the mountains will result in wide diurnal temperature ranges...with below normal min temps and near-to- slightly-above normal highs through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Pesky convection continues this morning across the SC Upstate, NC Piedmont, and the northern and central NC mountains with some sites seeing MVFR restrictions. Thunder potential has really died down within last few hours. Thus, only isolated lightning is expected with activity this morning. SHRA is currently impacting KCLT, KGMU, and KGSP as of 06Z. Went with a TEMPO for SHRA at KCLT from 06Z-10Z and VCSH at KGSP and KGMU from 06Z-08Z. KAVL will see another round of SHRA impact the terminal here shortly, so have a TEMPO for SHRA from 06Z-09Z. KHKY will see another round of -RA from 08Z-11Z, with VCSH in place prior to 08Z. KAND is expected to remain dry the rest of the TAF period. Cigs are expected to lower through daybreak, becoming IFR to MVFR. Vsbys are expected to drop through daybreak as well thanks to the rainfall from yesterday and this morning. Most locations should see MVFR vsbys, although KAVL may see vsbys drop to LIFR around daybreak. Vsbys and cigs should gradually improve after sunrise, becoming VFR by 13-14Z. VFR conditions will linger through the rest of the 06Z TAF period outside of isolated thunderstorms tracking across western NC this afternoon into early this evening. Went with PROB30s at all of the NC TAF sites to account for TSRA. Afternoon cumulus will develop thanks to daytime heating and low-end wind gusts will be possible at KAVL and the SC Upstate terminals this afternoon. Wind direction should generally be SW east of the mtns and W/WSW across the mtns through the TAF period. Outlook: Diurnal convection returns again on Wednesday. There is potential for restrictions associated with widespread fog and/or low stratus each morning for any terminals that receive rainfall the day/night prior. A cold front will approach out of the west on Thursday before tracking over the terminals Thursday night into Friday morning. This will lead to better convective chances, as well as restrictions, towards the end of the workweek. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...AR