044
FXUS65 KPSR 111944
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1244 PM MST Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to climb into early next week. Desert
locations will be hovering around 100 degrees beginning Monday
and continue through most of next week. Typical dry conditions
will persist through next week with late day breeziness. There
will be a risk for a few showers in the higher elevations of
northern and eastern Arizona by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Midday water vapor imagery showing a well defined upper low across
northern AZ/southern UT. This circulation will be responsible for
a few showers well to the north of our region this afternoon.
To the south, in our forecast area, the southern periphery of this
low will result in another afternoon of gusty winds as upper
level winds mix down in afternoon heating with continued elevated
fire weather conditions.

Otherwise, this system will slowly exit the area to the east with
some weak height rises in it`s wake for Sunday into Monday. This
will allow desert temperatures by Monday to climb to around 100,
with some lower 100s into SE CA. Height rises are not too
anomolously high, so temperatures will remain just slightly above
normal and keep most areas in minor HeatRisk.

By the middle of next week, another upper low moves in from off
the SW CA coast. This will produce height falls again across the
SW US. Not enough moisture for showers, except for in some higher
elevations to the north of the forecast area. A northwest flow
around this low would suggest the potential for some occasional
outlfow winds dropping south across the deserts, but too early to
get detailed on this, just something to monitor as we get closer.
The lower heights would also suggest keeping temperatures in
check, right around that century mark through the end of the week.
So, the good news, no developing excessive heat in the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Winds are beginning to shift out of the WSW at all metro
terminals. Gusts will increase by 20Z-21Z, peaking at 20-25 kts
through early this evening. Skies will remain mostly clear,
however there will be a few high-based cu around 10-12 kft this
afternoon across the northern fringe of the Phoenix Metro. Any
showers or convective activity will remain confined to the higher
terrain of northern AZ. The possibility of any storm generated
outflow from the north continues to be very low, thus we will
continue to preclude mention at this time.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
N to NW winds will continue at both KBLH and KIPL. There will be
an increase in breeziness at KBLH this afternoon with gusts
reaching up to 20 kts. Winds at IPL will eventually shift out of
the W after sunset, but speeds will remain aob 10 kts. Skies will
be mostly clear, with the exception of a few cu at 12 kft this
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of periodically gusty winds, dry fine fuels, and
low humidity levels will yield an occasionally elevated fire
danger through next week. Temperatures will continue warming
through early next week, reaching and maintaining an above normal
threshold. Seasonably dry weather should also persist across the
districts with minimum afternoon humidity levels around 10% at
lower desert elevations and in the teens over higher terrain
areas. Overnight recovery will range widely from poor to fair in a
20-50% range. Typical afternoon spring breezes 20-25 mph will be
common over most areas, though it should be noted there is at
least a 25% chance of enhanced gusts and erratic directions at
times during the middle of next week from outflows resulting from
showers and storms over the mountains of northern AZ.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...18/Frieders