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000
FXUS65 KTFX 180123
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
723 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024


.SYNOPSIS...

A cool northwesterly flow aloft will continue the chances for light
snow in most areas through the rest of the day today. Though snow
will continue to fall, confidence in impacts remains low given warm
surfaces from last weekends much above average temperatures. Cooler
than average temperatures persist through Friday, with a gradual
warmup thereafter.


&&

.UPDATE...

The current forecast is doing well, with only minor addition to
continue the probability of precipitation with lingering snow
showers across North Central Montana this evening for the next 2
to 4 hours. As of 7:15 PM, radar imagery continues to show snow
shower activity from north to south across North Central Montana
with primary impacts being a brief reduction in visibility.
Temperatures are still on track for this evening into tomorrow
morning to be in the 20s and colder in the mountains as well as
the West Yellowstone Valley as low as the single digits. Webb

&&

.AVIATION...
519 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (18/00Z TAF Period)

Snow showers, predominately over the plains of Central and North
Central Montana (i.e. KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT) will gradually
come to an end through 03z Thursday with the loss of daytime
heating. Low CIGS leading to MVFR/low-VFR conditions will persist
over these plains terminals through 03-09z Thursday, with a return
to VFR conditions thereafter. Breezy and gusty north winds will
persist across all terminals through 03-06z Thursday, with winds
decreasing through the remainder of the overnight hours before
increasing once again over the plains of Central and North Central
Montana late Thursday morning. Mountains will be obscured at times
over the next 24 hours, especially through Thursday morning. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 519 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

Through Friday night... The core of an upper level disturbance will
progress eastward, away from the Northern Rockies through the rest
of the week, but leave the region under a cool northwesterly flow
aloft. The result will be for cool temperatures and lingering light
snow through the rest of the daytime hours today, with opportunities
for snow showers Thursday and Friday, mainly over the mountains.
Additional snowfall in the Little Belts of an inch or two is
forecast through early evening, but webcams are showing even where
snowfall rates are higher, relatively warm surfaces are resulting
in only wet roads. Although more localized instances of slick
roads will be around, the expectation is that no additional Winter
Weather Advisories will be necessary. Trends will continue to be
monitored this afternoon and evening.

Breezy northwesterly surface winds will be around through the
remainder of the day, but given minimal snow accumulations on the
plains, concerns for widespread blowing/drifting snow have decreased
greatly. Gusty winds will subside this evening.

As mentioned before, cooler than average temperatures persist
through the rest of the week, with the best chances for snow showers
residing over terrain each of the next couple afternoons.

Saturday into next week... Upper level ridging will attempt to
build in this weekend, but an upper level disturbance will flatten
the ridge on Sunday. The result this weekend into Monday will be for
daytime highs to trend warmer, with Sunday featuring breezy westerly
winds, especially on the plains. The chance for 50 mph gusts in the
Cut Bank and Browning areas is around 40%.

Ensemble guidance favors upper level ridging fully building in
early next week, allowing temperatures to climb back above average.
Uncertainty arises toward the middle of next week, where there is
some disagreement on the location and strength of an upper level
disturbance off the west coast of the CONUS. -AM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  21  39  19  36 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  19  36  17  33 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  25  46  23  43 /  20  20  10   0
BZN  15  44  15  44 /  20  10  20   0
WYS   3  39  12  43 /  10  10   0   0
DLN  20  43  21  43 /  40  10  10   0
HVR  22  40  20  39 /  30   0   0  10
LWT  18  34  14  32 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls