826
FXXX12 KWNP 080031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at high levels. Region 3663 (N25W57,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) edged closer to the western limb, making accurate
analysis of its magnetic structure difficult. However, based on its
recent activity, it would appear the delta configuration still remains.
This region produced most of the M-class flares, including an M8.2/Sf at
07/1630 UTC, the largest of the period. Region 3663 also contributed an
additional six M-flares, including an M5.1 at 07/0616 UTC.

Region 3664 (S20W09, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) also maintained its delta
configuration, but had significant growth in its intermediate and
trailer spots. It is now the largest of the regions, with an overall
areal coverage over 630 millionths. This region produced additional
M-class flares, the largest being an M2.4 flare at 07/1150 UTC. Region
3668 (S16E01, Cso/beta) appeared to be decaying and losing spots, and
was inactive during the period. The remaining spotted active regions
were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

The No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at moderate to high levels over
08-10 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and a
high chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the continued flare
potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 08-10 May. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 08-10 May
due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected the continued influence of a
positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was steady near 5 nT, the
Bz component had no significant southward deflections, Phi was in a
positive orientation, and the solar wind speeds averaged between 500-550
km/s.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind conditions are likely to diminish slightly over 08
May as CH HSS influence subsides. On 09 May, possible enhancements are
likely, following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that
departed the Sun on 06 May. Conditions are then expected to return to
near nominal levels by the end of the period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Waning CH HSS influences are expected to further diminish through midday
on 08 May, bringing mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. By mid to late
day on 08 May and into 09 May, unsettled to active conditions are
possible as glancing effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May
are anticipated to influence Earth. By 10 May, conditions are expected
to return to mostly quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled
levels.