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Spot Forecast
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Spot Forecast for RAN2 West & South Shrublands...Massachusetts Army National Guard
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
723 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.


.DISCUSSION...

Upper Cape Cod

Mild/dry day on upper Cape Cod with temps climbing into the low to
mid 60s. Winds prevail out of the northwest this morning with sustained
speeds of 5 to 10 knots. By late morning/early afternoon a sea-
breeze circualtion may result in a wind shift to the
northeast/east with sustained winds between 5 and 10 knots. There
is some uncertainty with respect to how far inland the sea-breeze
can penetrate, but latest guidances suggests it should extend from
Cape Cod Bay to Buzzards Bay. Should west/northwest flow prevail,
gusts would be limited to about 15 knots. MinRH around 35 percent
this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK... Thursday through Sunday...

A warm front approaches on Thursday bringing isolated to
scattered showers across the the interior. High pressure builds
overhead for much of Friday. Another round of rain showers late
on Friday through Saturday. Drier weather returns on Sunday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Dewpoint............38 decreasing to 33 early.
Max apparent temp...61.
Surface winds (mph).Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph through early
                    afternoon shifting to the north around 5 mph,
                    then shifting to the northeast 5 to 6 mph early
                    in the afternoon becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph increasing to 5 to
                    7 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    north around 5 mph early in the afternoon
                    shifting to the northeast 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the afternoon becoming light.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (75500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................9 increasing to 28 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 51 increasing to 67 to 71 early
                    increasing to 82 to 88 decreasing to 34 to 36
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 6.0.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   2   2   3   22  19  34  42  55  59
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  52  55  58  60  60  61  61  61  60
Dewpoint........40  38  36  34  34  33  33  33  33  33
RH..............71  59  49  40  37  36  35  35  35  36
Heat index (F)..47  52  55  58  60  60  61  61  61  60
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   NW  N   NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   5   6   5   3   2
20 FT wind gust.12  13  15  16  16  16  15  16  16  15
Surface wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  W   NW  N   NE  NE  E   E
Surface wnd spd.5   5   6   6   7   5   6   5   3   2
Surface wnd gst.12  13  15  16  16  16  15  16  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 2.8 4.8 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 7.5 6.7 5.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   9   10  10  10  10  10
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   28  51  67  71  84  88  82  36  34
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6   20  38  54  58  71  76  68  60  52
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  20  13  6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
Min apparent temp...36.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming north 5 to 7 mph after
                    midnight, then becoming around 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 7 mph after
                    midnight, then becoming around 6 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 8 mph shifting to the north 8 to
                    10 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (27700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................22 decreasing to 2 to 5.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 increasing to 25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........59  49  45  48  40  27  26  25  24  20  17  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............58  55  53  51  50  49  48  46  44  42  41  40
Dewpoint........34  36  37  37  36  36  35  35  35  34  34  34
RH..............40  49  54  59  58  61  60  65  70  73  76  79
Heat index (F)..58  55  53  51  49  48  46  43  40  38  37  36
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   3   3   3   5   6   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.13  12  9   10  10  12  14  14  14  13  13  12
Surface wnd dir.SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.1   1   2   3   3   3   5   6   7   6   6   6
Surface wnd gst.13  12  9   10  10  12  14  14  14  13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   6   3   3   3   3   6   8   10  9   9   8
LVORI...........2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.............22  4   2   2   2   2   3   4   5   4   4   4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28  11  1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 12  20  25

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds (mph).Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 13 mph shifting to the east around 7
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................13 increasing to 29 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 40 to 46 through early afternoon
                    decreasing to 29 to 36 late in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 26.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........9      2      9      20     35     41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............41     43     47     50     50     50
Dewpoint........34     33     31     30     30     30
RH..............76     67     53     46     46     46
Heat index (F)..37     39     44     47     47     47
20 ft wind......N 6    N 7    N 7    NE 7   NE 7   E 7
20 ft wind gust.12     10     12     13     12     12
Surface wind....N 6    N 7    N 7    NE 7   NE 7   E 7
Surface wnd gst.12     10     12     13     12     12
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   2900   3600   4100   4400   3500
Transport wind..N 9    N 13   N 10   NW 8   NW 7   E 7
LVORI...........4      1      1      1      1      2
ADI.............13     45     45     40     36     29
Haines index....2      3      3      3      3      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9      32     33     29     26     21
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...RM
Requested by...Joel Carlson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411078.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joel.r.carlson.nfg@army.mil
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
