462
FXUS64 KMAF 030527
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SoCal/Baja, where it will
be reinforced by a series of shortwaves for the next few days,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft. At the surface, mesoanalysis shows the dryline has mixed
east of KMAF, and lies over the eastern fringes of the CWA. Just
to the north lies a cold front, and much of what it does tonight
will determine what happens tomorrow. Currently, a triple point is
developing invof Scurry County, and this may result in some
convection late this afternoon/evening over Scurry/Mitchell
Counties. Additional convection north and east may accelerate the
front southwest into the area overnight, w/the NAM and CAMs in
pretty good agreement on 12Z runs of banking it up against the
higher terrain by Friday morning before lifting it ahead of a warm
front to the south. Despite the front, there is increase in
moisture behind it, and doesn`t look to be too much cooling.
Overnight lows should be ~ 5-7F above normal.

Friday, there will be a little residual cooling behind the front,
but temperatures will remain ~ 5-7F above normal. There`s a chance
of convection along the aforementioned boundaries, especially in
better moisture in the east. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest deep-layer shear will continue a severe threat.

This convection will continue into the evening hours, dwindling
after 06Z.  A 30+kt LLJ will keep mixing in play, and lows 7-9F
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The forecast for this weekend remains wet for most locations east
of  the Pecos River, which is a welcomed sight. A southern stream
shortwave trough is expected to lift out of Mexico into the
southern Great Plains during the afternoon and evening on
Saturday. This coincides with the dryline backing up to near the
Texas/New Mexico state line and a cold front, transitioning to a
broad effective warm front, over the northern Permian Basin. The
axis of greatest moisture is expected to impinge on the
intersection of these two features resulting in widespread
thunderstorm development by mid to late afternoon as the trough
approaches. This may quickly congeal into a mesoscale system as it
translates east across portions of southeast New Mexico and much
of the Permian Basin. Severe weather may be possible with any
thunderstorms as sufficient destabilization is expected with
temperatures warming well into the 80s and even some 90s combined
with increasing flow fields with the approaching trough.
Additionally, forecast precipitable water values may well exceed
the 90th percentile for this time of year. This supports the
threat of very heavy rainfall with the potential for flash
flooding. Any thunderstorms slowly slide east into the evening and
overnight. This convection may further be supported by the low-
level jet as the trough moves overhead, keeping rain chances into
a good portion of early Sunday morning. Overall, a good inch or
more of rainfall may result from this convection, especially with
eastern extent.

Convection is expected to have weakened or exited the region by
late Sunday morning. Clouds and rain overnight should keep
morning low temperatures mild in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures on
Sunday may be a touch cooler across much of the area over
Saturday, especially in areas that receive significant rainfall.
Another round of thunderstorms may be possible again by afternoon
across the eastern third of the region but this remains a bit
uncertain. The dryline will be somewhat diffuse, with an upper-low
of the Great Basin and subsidence behind the departing shortwave
from Saturday. This may suppress more vigorous thunderstorm
development but at least scattered thunderstorms remain likely
across eastern portions of the region.

The upper-low over the Great Basin begins to progress to the east
by the start of the new week. Unfortunately, this system begins
to open and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the central
Great Plains, leading to the dryline pushing east. At this time,
the dryline appears to be shunted just east of the entire area
keeping us dry with breezy southwesterly winds. Quasi-zonal flow
throughout the column then takes over as we move through Tuesday
and Wednesday with no rain in sight. Thursday may have a cold
front sneak into the northern portions of the region as a large
trough axis develops across the central Great Plains into Midwest
but this is subject to change at this juncture. Regardless, expect
warm temperatures mainly in the 90s and plentiful sun for the new
week.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A weak cold front is sagging southward into the area, while the
dryline is starting to retreat westward, resulting in some fairly
variable winds. Sustained speeds tonight are expected to remain
under 12kt, with winds expected to settle out of the E/SE by
morning. Winds will shift to the S/SE, becoming gusty during the
afternoon, with gusts sticking around into the evening for
MAF/INK/FST where the low-level jet will come into play. MVFR
ceilings are progged to develop into the area late tonight,
though have only included mention at MAF where confidence is
highest. VFR conditions will return to MAF by around 14Z, with VFR
conditions otherwise prevailing. Thunderstorms are possible,
mainly during the 21Z-02Z time frame for MAF/FST, but will defer
to later issuances for potential TS mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  84  60  80 /  40  70  80  30
Carlsbad                 60  87  58  89 /  10  30  40  10
Dryden                   68  88  67  87 /  20  40  40  30
Fort Stockton            65  92  63  89 /  20  50  50  20
Guadalupe Pass           58  82  57  82 /   0  20  20   0
Hobbs                    59  83  56  84 /  20  60  60  20
Marfa                    53  88  52  86 /  10  20  30  10
Midland Intl Airport     63  84  60  81 /  30  60  70  30
Odessa                   65  86  62  82 /  30  60  70  20
Wink                     63  89  62  88 /  20  50  60  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...84