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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190809
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
309 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

WV imagery shows a large trough centered over Ontario, and an open
wave approaching the west coast, leaving West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  At the surface, a cold front
has banked up against the higher terrain, through which it will push
by 12Z or so.

Temperatures will be tricky today, with quite the spread on
models/MOS numbers, with forecast highs at KMAF ranging anywhere
from 57 on the MET/NAM to 70 on the MAV/GFS.  W/the NAM handling
cold fronts better than the ECMWF/GFS, and given abundant cloud
cover forecast throughout the day, undercutting the NBM seems
reasonable, and we`ve used the NBM25 to bring highs closer to the
NAM.  Early this morning, the NBM begins developing convection over
the lwr Trans Pecos, and then west into the Big Bend Area/Presidio
Valley as shortwaves move through southwest flow aloft, and interact
w/the frontal boundary along the river.

Tonight, surface winds will veer to easterly, advecting Gulf
moisture to the west, and upslope flow will combine with the
approaching west coast trough to increase POPs E-W, especially after
06Z Saturday.  Mixing and abundant cloud cover will keep overnight
minimums at or just above normal.

Saturday, the west coast trough arrives, and models hint at a
secondary front working its way into the area. This looks to be
the best chance for precip this forecast, especially northeast.
Unfortunately, this looks to be a high POP, low QPF event, which
seems more typical as of late. But at this point, beggars can`t be
choosers, and we`ll take what we can get. Temperatures Saturday
afternoon should come in ~ 16-18F below normal. On the upside,
this should be the coldest day this forecast, with warmer
conditions to follow into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The west coast trough continues to move east of the region on
Sunday, thus ending rainfall for now. Temperatures remain well below
normal across most of the region with 60s holding on due to
continued cloud cover. Further southwest 70s and 80s return to these
locations as filtered sunshine returns. The start of the new week
sees a gradual building of the ridge once again. Temperatures
increase back into the widespread 70s and 80s with the aide of
return flow and mostly sunny skies on Monday. This warming continues
into Tuesday with 80s for the majority and 90s along the river
valleys as the low-level thermal ridge overspreads our area. A weak
front and increased cloud cover may decrease the warm temperatures
slightly by Wednesday but most remain in the 80s. The weak front may
bring an isolated thunderstorm or two across the northeastern
Permian Basin as well. By the end of next week, the very warm
weather continues, 80s and 90s, while the dryline slowly backs up
into eastern portions of the area. At the same time, our next
weather system should begin to slide into the southwest US. This
approaching system begins to increase thunderstorm chances once
again across the eastern CWA along and east of the dryline.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Latest surface obs indicate the front has made it through all
terminals, and northeasterly flow will continue next 24 hours. All
models indicate a stratus deck developing late tonight E-W, w/NBM
suggesting MVFR cigs all terminals for at least a few hours
Friday. Cigs should scatter out to VFR sometime during the
afternoon all terminals, but may redevelop near the end of the
forecast period KMAF/KINK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  50  57  44 /  10  70 100  60
Carlsbad                 68  53  63  47 /   0  20  60  30
Dryden                   78  62  74  52 /  30  50  90  60
Fort Stockton            71  57  69  47 /  30  50  90  50
Guadalupe Pass           67  52  64  44 /   0  10  40  10
Hobbs                    60  47  56  42 /  10  50  90  30
Marfa                    79  50  78  41 /  30  30  50  30
Midland Intl Airport     60  51  59  44 /  10  60 100  50
Odessa                   61  53  59  45 /  10  60  90  50
Wink                     66  54  65  47 /  10  40  80  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...44