259
FXUS64 KMAF 290818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Enjoy this beautiful, quiet morning with temperatures in the 40s/50s
as we all know summer is just around the corner. Westerly flow
across the entire area again today will lead to clear skies and
highs back into the 80s/90s.

Things get more interesting by Tuesday. A large scale upper trough
will take shape over the Northern Rockies while height falls east of
this trough will allow low level moisture to re-enter the region. A
sharpening dryline will slide east across the area during the day as
westerly flow aloft mixes drier air to the surface. East of the
dryline, strong heating (temperatures in the 90s) will lead to
increasing instability while deep layer shear strengthens aloft. A
well-timed shortwave will arrive late afternoon Tuesday helping to
erode a stout cap as shown by forecast soundings. There is still
some uncertainty as to how many storms will form, but hi-res models
show development in a very typical area off the Stockton Plateau.
This gives us at least some confidence in this scenario. Will
advertise isolated PoPs in the grids for Tuesday with a threat of
severe as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

After any convection that occurs on Tuesday, efficient moisture
return occurs Wednesday morning fueled by lee troughing. By sunrise
Wednesday morning, the dryline will be draped as far west as the
higher terrain and the TX/NM state line. Looking aloft, flow
gradually transitions from zonal to southwesterly as a trough swings
into the central Rockies. While the trough is too far north to
provide much synoptic ascent, with such rich moisture and surface
temperatures in the 90s (aided by a stout low-level thermal ridge),
very impressive CAPE alone should be enough to fire convention along
the dryline Wednesday afternoon. There is a large amount of
agreement between the NBM and LREF clusters of 2500-3000 J/kg of
CAPE east of the dryline, but the question remains, how far east
will the dryline mix by the afternoon and thus, how far west will
storm chances stretch. The LREF clusters and the NBM mean generally
agree that the dryline makes it to a Midland-Fort Stockton line,
limiting better storm chances to the eastern Permian Basin. There
remains a low probability (10-30%) that the dryline doesn`t mix as
far east and may bring locations like Midland/Odessa and Fort
Stockton into play as well, but we`ll see how the high-resolution
convective allowing models respond tomorrow night. For now, the
overall thinking is a few storms fire off the dryline in the eastern
Basin and lower Trans Pecos but bulk shear is going to be limited by
the displacement of the trough and relatively light flow aloft. Even
still, with such high CAPE and only 20-25kts of shear should still
support the chance for severe hail but locally enhanced shear from
convective cold pools or storm splitting may lead to higher severe
chances. Stay tuned over the next day or so as we refine the
forecast for Wednesday.

For Thursday, the aforementioned upper trough begins ejecting into
the central Plains, helping mix the dryline well east of our area,
leading a much quieter day, though a storm or two is still possible
in the far eastern Basin. The trough also sends a potent cold front
into the area Thursday evening, bringing some much-appreciated
relief from the 90+ degree weather seen on Thursday in the form of
near average conditions. The next shortwave to impact the area is
set to lift out of northern Mexico Friday into Saturday, and with
better moisture in the area pulled in behind Thursday`s front, sets
the stage for some good rainfall chances across the Permian Basin.
We`re still several days out from this possibility so we don`t want
to get anyone`s hopes up just yet. Stay tuned...

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR continues with light winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  62  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                 85  54  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  66  93  69 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            89  62  94  64 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           77  57  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    83  55  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    82  49  88  50 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     86  62  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   86  64  92  66 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     88  59  95  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29