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000
FXUS64 KMAF 122235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The short term forecast is rather pedestrian today.  WV imagery
shows a ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this
afternoon, resulting in mostly sunny skies and afternoon highs in
the 80s most locations.

Tonight, an upper trough off the west coast will approach the Bay
Area, nudging the ridge east and putting us under southwest flow
aloft on the backside of the ridge.  A honkin` 50+kt LLJ is forecast
to develop, w/return flow approaching advisory levels over the
Stockton Plateau and adjacent areas.  This will advect abundant Gulf
moisture into the eastern zones.  A fetch of high cloud will combine
w/return flow and increased moisture to keep overnight minimums
above normal.

Saturday, as leeside troughing develops on the Front Range, surface
winds will take on a more westerly component, adding a little
downslope warming to increasing thicknesses to yield afternoon highs
a pleasant ~ 8-10F above normal.

Saturday night, while the LLJ is not forecast to be quite as
obstreperous as tonight`s, it`ll still continue advecting plentiful
Gulf moisture into the east, w/50F surface dewpoints almost to KINK
by 12Z Sunday.  w/plenty of high cloud persisting, overnight lows
should be ~ 10-12F above normal on average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The long term begins with Sunday seeing the warmest temperatures of
the year so far with many spots in the upper 80s to low 90s. April
8th is the average first date to reach 90F at Midland Intl and
Sunday looks to be the first day it reaches and eclipses 90F. Strong
southwesterly flow develops on Monday with the approach of an upper
level trough and accompanying jet. Wind products will be necessary
across southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas as confidence
increases on where highest winds will be expected. A dryline takes
shape on a north-south line stretching from near Big Spring
southward towards Dryden that Monday afternoon. Forecast soundings
for eastern zones continue to show storms being possible with some
capable of becoming severe. Exact location of the dryline will
change over the coming days, so stay aware of the forecast as
details are ironed out over the weekend.

The upper level trough that will have brought windy conditions on
Monday exits the area on Tuesday. Temperatures fall slightly, but
remain above normal and increase further on Wednesday with most
reaching back into the upper 80s to low 90s. A backdoor cold front
is pushed through Thursday morning and begins a slow trend downward
for afternoon temperatures. Friday sees the coolest air return with
highs managing to reach into the 60s and 70s. Meager rain chances
return with the aforementioned front, but given that much can change
between this forecast issuance and then, expect that to evolve over
the next several days. Outside of rain chances late next week,
conditions will be quite dry and contribute to an increased concern
for fire weather that will be detailed in the discussion below.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Breezy, gusty return
flow will diminish after sundown, but remain elevated overnight.
Saturday, winds will veer to SW-W as leeside troughing develops
on the Front Range. High clouds will diminish over the next 24
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remains for this afternoon as
critically low RHs, above average temperatures, and breezy winds
make for near critical fire weather conditions. Winds decrease
tonight with recoveries being poor to fair from west to east across
the region. Winds stay on the lighter side for Saturday and Sunday,
but temperatures continue to climb into the upper 80s and low 90s
with persistent downslope flow. Further RFDs are likely needed for
these days as ERCs generally remain between the 50th and 75th
percentiles with higher values across the Big Bend and Terrell
County.

Monday sees the approach of an upper level trough with a mid level
jet rounding the southern edge of the system. This jet looks to
orientate itself west to east across SE NM and West Texas. Highest
winds will be confined to the mountains, but strong and gusty winds
expand into the adjacent plains. Min RHs bottom out in the single
digits for much of the area. Widespread critical to extreme fire
weather conditions are expected that afternoon and evening,
especially to the west of the dryline that will establish itself in
the eastern Permian Basin. East of the dryline will be a sharp
cutoff of fire weather concerns as winds decrease and moisture
returns help mitigate otherwise dry fuels.

Winds decrease Monday night and into Tuesday, but dry conditions
hang on into the middle of the coming week. Temperatures keep the
trend of remaining above normal with critically low RHs expected
each afternoon. Moisture improves somewhat with the passage of a
backdoor front late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               57  89  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 51  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   58  87  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            58  91  60  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  88  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   58  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     56  91  57  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44