Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
233 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
We begin to see a change in the weather pattern over the next
several days with a warming and drying trend expected. Northerly
flow aloft today will become more NW/W as the center of the upper
ridge to the west shifts south. Ample sun today and the return of
south winds at the surface will help temperatures warm into the 90s
most areas today. Significant warming continues the next couple days
as the 850mb thermal ridge shifts east and much drier air starts to
work its way eastward with an advancing dryline. By Thursday, the
dryline looks to push through much, if not all, of the CWA and high
temperatures of 100+ can be expected areawide. A few thunderstorms
near the Davis Mountains at 230pm CDT this afternoon and best
chances through this evening will remain across the higher terrain,
Big Bend and Terrell County. Some storms could be strong, producing
gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will be possible
once again Wednesday mainly near the Davis Mountains. Will see the
dryline push into western zones in the afternoon so decided at least
isolated was warranted across the west. Thursday, the dryline pushes
too far east to warrant PoPs.

A cold front is still expected to move into the region Friday
morning, potentially stalling NE-SW near a Snyder to Fort Stockton
to Big Bend line. Northern counties will see temps roughly 5-10
degrees cooler than Thursday but areas to the south and southeast
may only cool a degree or two. Models indicate a shortwave trough
moving overhead late Friday which may interact with the front so
will continue to carry the potential for thunderstorms across
portions of the Permian Basin during this time. The front quickly
lifts back north Friday night with the return of southerly winds
at the surface Saturday. Compared to the ECMWF, the GFS maintains
higher 850mb temps through the weekend and the beginning of next
week so went slightly cooler than the MEX Sat-Tues. This Thursday
looks to be the hottest day over the next 7 days.

The center of the upper ridge begins to migrate NE toward the
southern Plains over the weekend and the upper flow aloft becomes
very weak and somewhat erratic. Makes it difficult to discern any
weak upper disturbances moving overhead this far out so will
continue very low PoPs over various portions of the region this
weekend through mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  96  73 103 /  10  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       69 103  68 105 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         70  94  72 102 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Stockton                  69  99  73 104 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 67  96  70  96 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          67  98  67 102 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          59  93  60  97 /  20  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  97  73 104 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                         70  97  73 104 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                           69 102  71 105 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/27



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