National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMEG 202326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
LEAST PATCHY STRATUS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 21/16Z. SHRAS AND
TSRAS MAY APPROACH KJBR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY SO CONTIUED
VCTS THERE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRA TO DEVELOP AND
START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTN. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCTS AT KJBR AND KMEM AFT 21/20Z.

SOUTH WINDS OF 8-12 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY AFTN.

SJM

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  74  88  70  83 /  10  30  80  50
MKL  71  85  69  82 /  10  30  70  50
JBR  70  84  66  82 /  40  60  80  30
TUP  70  88  69  82 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$