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000
FXUS64 KMEG 121045 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
545 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 254 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

SKIES WERE CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FEW
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CLIPPING NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH MIXING FOR A FEW TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN NEAR 80F.

FOR TODAY THE MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THOUGH THERE MAY BE ONE
OR TWO STATIONS WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICIES ABOVE 105F FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO...THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL
REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 104F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED. NONETHELESS IT WILL FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL WHERE OCCASIONAL 20
MPH GUSTS WILL BE FELT.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE TRICKY...AS EYES
WILL BE ON THE ANTICIPATED MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AHEAD
OF A SURFACE LOW/FRONT. CURRENT 00Z MODEL RUNS KEEP THIS COMPLEX
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...BUT A FORWARD PROPAGATING
OUTFLOW/COLD POOL COULD QUICKLY SURGE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO AN
EXPECTED UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WEST TENNESSEE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BECOMING THE NEW COLD FRONT IDENTITY. FOR THAT REASON
HAVE OPTED TO PLACE A CONDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM THREAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS A 30KT LLJ PROVIDES BETTER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING.

ON THURSDAY...NEW SPC OUTLOOK TAGS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI FOR A SLIGHT RISK. AFTER LOOKING AT THE
INSTABILITY...WOULD HAVE TO AGREE THAT ONE OR TWO PULSE STORMS
GENERATED IN A 3000+ J/KG AIRMASS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL AND SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS...DESPITE THE WEAK FRONTAL
FORCING/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SO WILL UPDATE THE UPCOMING HWO TO
INCLUDE THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AROUND
FIVE DEGREES COOLER FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT USHERING IN LOW 60F DEWPOINTS. THIS EXPECTATION
WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS...WHICH MAY RUN
CLOSER TO TEN DEGREES COOLER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. HIGHS WILL
STAY SEASONAL ON FRIDAY WITH MORE LOW 90`S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF PAINT A
SIMILAR PICTURE OF THE RIDGE FLATTENING AND A WEAK/30 KT 500 MB
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE A THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL
APPEARS FEASIBLE WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID JUNE.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (12/12Z-13/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASING
TODAY FROM THE SW AND W TO SPEEDS BETWEEN 9 AND 17 KTS WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS AT KJBR AND KMEM WHERE GUSTS 18-23 KTS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER 13/01Z WINDS SW DIMINISHING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  96  77  93  69 /   0  10  20  10
MKL  95  74  90  63 /   0  20  20   0
JBR  96  75  92  66 /   0  10  10   0
TUP  95  73  93  65 /   0  10  40  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$