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000
FXUS64 KMEG 190422
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO NEAR
JACKSON. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIFTING UP TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND BLOSSOMING
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 40 POPS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL UPDATE TO BUMP UP TO 60 POPS AND WILL
LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MAY ALSO BUMP UP LOWS IN
MEMPHIS AS IT IS STILL 80 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE RISK
REMAINS RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST DATA STILL
SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST TONIGHT. KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF KMEM WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT
FOG. CONTINUED MENTIONING A TEMPO OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMKL...KJBR
AND KTUP FROM 19/10Z-19/14Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. ANY LOWER
CONDS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE
OVERNIGHT INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING AGAIN AFT 20/00Z.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  20
MKL  68  88  69  88 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  69  88  70  86 /  10  10  20  30
TUP  69  89  68  89 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$