000
FXUS64 KMEG 251801
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...
DENSE CIRRUS FROM MIDWEST MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH SOME THINNING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST WORDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.

JAB

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/

VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO
STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT AND NON-ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. VERY LITTLE SPREAD SEEN IN THE LOW AND HIGH MEANS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AS FOR MEAN 12 HOUR PRECIP CHANCES.

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPTS...AND TEMPS JUST BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. SFC HIGH DRIFTS EAST FOR SUNDAY AND MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST GULF AIR...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVG TEMPS AND A SMALL CHC OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MONDAY...SLOW CLIMB CONTINUES WITH DEWPTS STARTING TO REACH INTO
THE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIDGING CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE REGION THROUGH THE MAJORITY IF NOT
ALL OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...MAYBE STARTING
TO GIVE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD...DEWPTS WILL PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEARING 90.
CAPPING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF THE RAIN CHANCES UNTIL MAYBE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT OVERALL
STRONG AGREEMENT IN MODELS THROUGH FRIDAY...LESSER SO IN THE
DISTANT NEXT WKND. GFS AND ENS GFS PUSH PRECIP CHCS AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY...AND EURO HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY DUE TO THE
RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH.

--ABS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION.
WEAKENING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  62  86  67  86 /  10  10  20  10
MKL  53  84  63  86 /  10  10  20  10
JBR  59  85  64  85 /  10  20  20  20
TUP  56  86  62  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$