000
FXUS64 KMEG 140431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAD MOVED SOUTH
OF THE MIDSOUTH AT MIDEVENING. DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT HAD POOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S... WHILE MID 60S DEWPOINTS
PREVAILED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.

FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE FIRST PERIOD RAIN CHANCES
AND TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR IUKA MISSISSIPPI TO
TUNICA MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REALLY
BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA
BY 7-8 PM. THEREAFTER...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE CWA. AS A RESULT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. ALREADY SEEING DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO
THE NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BUT BY SATURDAY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING INTERACTS WITH
THE SFC FRONT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM OHIO VALLEY WILL AT LEAST BUILD BACK BRIEFLY INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM FROM
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT COULD BEGIN
LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A DRY FORECAST.

KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5 KTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 15/01Z.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  87  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  60  84  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  65  85  64  91 /   0   0   0  10
TUP  66  87  60  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$