National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHGX 260437
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR ceilings are filling in across the area and will persist well
into mid-late morning for most locations, and might not lift much
at all closer to the coast during the day. There will be a few
weak impulses moving overhead and can rule out an iso-sct
shra/tstm but tough to pinpoint details (very unlikely they`d be
impactful anyway). Other than ceilings, main aviation hazard will
be gusty sse winds. Once we get some mixing during the daylight
hours, we`ll probably seen frequent gusts 20-30kt. MVFR ceilings
will spread back in from south-north Fri evening. 47

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The past 06z/12z/18z HRRR runs have shown some general consistency
showing some iso-sct precip being a possibility as a few mid/upper
impulses move across parts of the area during the day tomorrow.
Went ahead and threw some low POPs in the grids down to about the
US59/I69 corridor just to get the mention in the fcst.  47

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

If you`ve been outside this afternoon, then I`m sure you`ve noticed
that it`s a bit breezy out there. Latest surface analysis shows
surface low pressure beginning to develop on the lee side of the
Rockies, and the 12Z UA obs plot shows a LLJ developing out in
Central Texas earlier this morning. This LLJ will steadily slide
eastward and will make it over the Brazos Valley by later this
afternoon. It`ll start out as 25-35 kts this afternoon, then
increasing to 35-45 kts by tonight. This combined with the
tightening pressure gradient from the developing surface low will
lead to elevated winds prevailing throughout the short term period.
The main ridge axis will shift off to the east later this afternoon
as an upper level trough transitions from the Four Corners region to
the Central Plains. Embedded shortwaves within the ridge will
attempt to develop some isolated showers, but it`ll have a VERY
tough time doing so with a capping inversion aloft persisting. The
best chances of this occuring will be west of I-45 through this
afternoon. High temperatures today will reach the low to mid 80s.
Still expecting low temperatures tonight to drop into the low 70s
due to increasing low-level clouds and elevated winds persisting.

Southwesterly flow aloft is firmly established by Friday as the
upper level trough evolves to have an embedded upper level low.
Surface low pressure drifts northeastward on Friday causing the
associated frontal boundary to become quasi-stationary well to our
west. With increasing PVA and elevated PW values in the 1.4"-1.7"
range north of I-10 (90th percentile: ~1.61"), some showers/storms
are possible to develop along the tail-end of a convective line
advancing ahead of the front. Anything along this line will have to
battle a capping inversion to survive, but this cap is weaker over
the Brazos Valley. There is plenty of instability in place along
with steep 700-500mb lapse rates, so if anything manages to survive
long enough in our area there is potential for a storm or two to
maintain/become strong to severe. As a result, there is a marginal
risk of severe weather (level 1 out of 5) for northern portions of
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods for Friday. With PW values exceeding
the 90th percentile, there is also a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall (level 1 out of 4) on Friday as well for portions of the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. This is all under the assumption that
storms can maintain themselves long enough in at least a slightly
capped environment...which is why it`s a marginal risk. As far as
temperatures go, expect another day with high temperatures in the
low to mid 80s with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This
will be another night where we may approach record high minimum
temperatures in some spots.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

With a weak surface boundary continuing to sit just to our north
(and thereby keeping rainfall out of the area for the time being),
the main story of Saturday will be the potential for some of the
warmest conditions we`ve seen across the area in many months. Robust
onshore flow will provide both steady WAA and low-level moisture
transport, helping to drive a further increase in high temperatures
to the mid/upper 80s while dew points sit just above 70. Resultant
WBGT values will reach around 80, which is mitigated somewhat by
elevated cloud cover and strong winds brought on by a very tight
pressure gradient given a deep surface low to the NE. Many locations
may in fact reach Wind Advisory criteria during the day on Saturday,
with winds reaching around 25 mph with gusts at times reaching in
excess of 30 mph.

Rainfall chances increase on Sunday as a midlevel low pushes into
the Central Plains while the surface boundary drifts back to the
south. Scattered showers and storms will become more widespread by
the afternoon, and while there remains a limited chance of a
stronger storm, severe weather chances remain best well to the north
of the area. Associated widespread cloud cover will diminish highs
slightly with most values in the low/mid 80s. Overnight lows remain
in the lower 70s through the duration of the weekend.

The weak boundary will remain stalled over the area through mid-
week, with passing shortwaves bringing a chance of showers and
storms each day through at least Wednesday. Highs should generally
remain in the mid 80s by this time with lows in the lower 70s.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Elevated winds will build further heading into the weekend, with
sustained winds increasing from around 20 knots tonight to up to 25-
30 knots on Saturday. As this occurs, seas may reach as high as 10
feet at times, and an extended Small Craft Advisory is likely to be
required with conditions offshore remaining poor into the early part
of next week. Rainfall chances return by late Sunday, becoming more
isolated on Monday. Winds and seas will both diminish heading into
the early part of next week, remaining generally out of the
southeast.

Cady

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only one River Flood Warning remains in effect along the Trinity
River. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) remains in minor
flood stage and is forecast to crest some time today. This site is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Monday. The Trinity
River at Riverside (RVRT2) and at Liberty (LBYT2) will remain in
action stage until further notice. Additional rounds of rainfall are
expected over the next week or so with the highest totals occuring
to the northeast of Southeast Texas. With some of the locally heavy
rainfall expected to occur along the Upper Trinity River, the
subsequent runoff may lead to an even longer period of action stage
to minor river flooding along this basin.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  83  72  87 /  10  30  10  10
Houston (IAH)  73  84  73  86 /   0  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  73  81 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday evening for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$