Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
009 FXUS62 KKEY 050841 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 441 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 A zonally stretched surface high pressure system centered near the Canadian Maritimes reaches southwest to near the Yucatan Peninsula. The gradient along the southern flank of this high supports 15 to 20 knot east-southeasterlies at the Reef. The KBYX radar detects widely scattered showers this morning, a little more coverage than the past several days. The sampled moisture on the 00Z KKEY RAOB has not changed much in 24-hours, however, satellite derived sources suggest better low-level moisture is spreading west-northwest across the Cay Sal Bank. Overnight lows are once again in the upper 70s and dewpoints are now in the lower 70s. .FORECAST... Forecast reasoning for the next few days has not changed appreciably. The pattern is analogous to a typical long duration blow that features low-level moisture undulations in the easterlies. The only difference with this pattern is the depth of the moisture, which will remain very shallow. The moist pockets will deepen to around 800 mb, in contrast to the drier episodes down near 900 mb. Long story short, rain chances will oscillate between near nil and 20% for the next few days. Around mid-week, forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggest an even drier spell and we advertise dry conditions for Tuesday through at least Wednesday night. This will be in tandem with a turn in the breezes to the southeast as the high pressure system over the western North Atlantic gets squashed to the southeast of Bermuda. The forecast for next weekend has included depictions of a very late season cold front, although run-to-run and model-to-model consistency has been poor. Climatology is against this fantasy. More likely is a front stalling to our north and the tropical soup from the western Caribbean bathing the Keys in deepening moisture. Dewpoints will climb into the mid to upper 70s. This will set up a scenario for very good rain chances and potentially some episodes of heavy rainfall. For now, we highlight above normal rain chances into the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight for the Straits of Florida. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days. Breezes will tend to peak overnight, followed by lulls in the afternoon. Breezes will turn to the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as the high loses latitude and flattens over the western North Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through Sunday evening. Isolated showers will continue across the region, but the probability of direct impact on one of the terminals is too low to mention in the TAFs. Surface winds will remain from the ESE at 9 to 14 knots, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots at times. && .CLIMATE... Despite the limited rainfall coverage, and rather luckily, our office`s rain gauge has detected rainfall on 7 of the last 8 days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 78 86 78 / 20 20 10 10 Marathon 86 78 86 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest