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000
FXUS64 KLCH 230438
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1138 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The surface high pressure is off to the east of the CWA which has
allowed some light southerly flow to come back into the area. We
have not had enough moisture return to see more than light cloud
cover as of yet. As a result, we will cool down into the 40s to
50s again tonight. The inherited afternoon grids are on track with
current observations and model trends, so no changes were made.
Stigger/87

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Beautiful today with highs in the lower 70s under sunny skies.
This nice weather will continue into tomorrow, but with a warming
trend as highs bump up to the middle and upper 70s. SFC high
pressure remains elongated across the region Wed with mid level
heights rising. This will push highs into the lower and middle
80s, but with TDs in the middle 60s...not terrible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

The latter half of the week will be dominated by warm and humid
conditions more reminiscent of early summer than mid spring. High
pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico will combine with a
pair of developing lows along the lee side of the southern Rockies
to produce persistent breezy southerly winds Thursday through
Sunday. NBM guidance presently keeps sustained winds a few MPH below
advisory criteria, but could still become necessary especially
Saturday.

Upper ridging extending from the Bay of Campeche across the western
and northern gulf will keep a lid on convection through Saturday
although waves of low and mid level moisture will yield more cloud
cover especially Friday. The ridge axis is progged to shift into the
Eastern gulf late Saturday, faster than previous runs, as another
disturbance pushes a frontal boundary toward the coast Sunday. This
looks to be our next significant chance of precipitation although
confidence on the timing of this system is very low due to poor
model consistency.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Light, variable winds are anticipated through at least sunrise
with high pressure in control. Surface high will continue a
movement to the east throughout the day Tuesday resulting in
winds prevailing from the south-southeast and south after 15Z.
Daytime winds will increase to around 10 to 12 kts with some
higher gusts in the mix from diurnal impacts. Winds decrease
after 01 to 02Z, but will remain from the south.

VFR skies with only some high cirrus are expected thru much of the
period. Southerly flow brings moisture and lower clouds in at BPT
towards the end of the period with all terminals seeing some lowered
VIS after 06Z.

11/Calhoun

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

SFC winds are generally from the east, but will turn onshore
tomorrow and continue through the work week. By mid to late week,
the pressure gradient increases with moderate onshore flow
likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  43  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  71  51  77  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  73  50  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  73  54  79  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...11