738
FXUS64 KMAF 112309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak disturbance
continue to move east across portions of the Permian Basin. A few
locations saw brief heavy rain and some small hail. Unfortunately,
forecast models are really struggling today, especially the CAMs.
This gives us low confidence heading into this afternoon and evening
regarding more storm chances. Clouds are beginning to clear along
and west of the Pecos River which will lead to destabilization ahead
of another shortwave expected to arrive over the next few hours. If
we see enough heating an additional round of storms will develop
mainly west of the Pecos River and move east. Most storms will
remain elevated with large hail being the main threat. Further south
near the Davis Mountains east onto the Stockton Plateau storms could
become more surface based. This would allow for more of a damaging
wind threat in addition to large hail.

Winds veer to the west and southwest Sunday with the passage of an
upper trough to our north. Drier, downsloping surface flow will help
warm temperatures significantly with highs generally in the upper
80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Warm and dry days return for Monday and Tuesday as an upper ridge
passes overhead. Meanwhile, persistent south-southeasterly flow
across the Permian Basin helps to sharpen a dryline backed up
against the higher terrain by Wednesday morning. This dryline is
sharpened in time for the next upper trough to approach from the
west. Good moisture and steep lapse rates should lead to a fair
amount of instability east of the dryline with the NBM and clusters
still in agreement of seeing 1500+ J/kg in the warm sector. This
paired with 30-40kts of shear could suggest that Wednesday may shape
up to be our next day of severe weather...we`ll keep an eye on this
as we get a bit closer. A cold front is ushered into the region on
the heels of the aforementioned trough, brining northerly winds and
cooler temperatures in briefly for Thursday before temperatures
quickly rebound for the tail-end of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

All terminals returned to VFR except KHOB and KMAF which remain
MVFR. CIGs should deteriorate overnight going to IFR at KHOB,
KMAF, and KINK with a brief period of MVFR at other sites. Gusty
east winds will diminish over the next couple of hours. Clouds
will lift and clear mid morning Sunday with gusty west winds
developing by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  89  56  87 /  40  30   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  86  56  86 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   67  95  64  94 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  92  60  88 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           56  78  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  85  53  84 /  30   0   0   0
Marfa                    51  84  48  85 /  50   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  89  57  86 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                   63  89  59  87 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                     62  91  59  90 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29