659
FXUS64 KSJT 041917
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...Significant severe weather expected again this afternoon and
evening...

Not much change to forecast reasoning the next 24 hours. Early
this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving slowly south across
far southern portions of the Big Country and extends west to near
Midland and west to the New Mexico border. A dryline extended
south from the front across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos.
Isolated thunderstorms have already developed just north of the
boundary early this afternoon. One cell was located in Scurry
county and another in Nolan county. Both of these storms will have
the potential to produce large hail despite being on the north
side of the front. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and north of the front later this afternoon and then
south of the front and east of the dryline during peak heating.
Any storms north of the front will pose a large hail and possibly
a wind threat. The airmass ahead of the front and east of the
dryline will become very unstable by mid/late afternoon (MLCAPE
2500-3500), with deep layer shear 45-60 kts by early evening.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop between 19 and 20Z, per
latest CAM`s. Any storms that develop within the warm sector will
become severe quickly, with large to very large hail and some
tornadoes possible. A southeasterly low level jet will develop
this evening, increasing the tornado potential as storms move east
into richer moisture. The greatest tornado potential is expected
generally south and west of a San Angelo to Sonora line, where a
strong tornado is possible. Isolated tornadoes will be possible
farther south and east across portions of the Heartland and
northwest Hill Country counties later this evening/overnight.

Storms are expected to eventually form into an MCS and move east
across the area overnight. In addition to the severe threat, heavy
rainfall will be possible through tonight, with widespread 1 to 3
inches of rain expected, with some locales seeing in excess of 3
inches. Excessive rainfall may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Due to the heavy rain potential and given recent heavy rainfall,
a Flood Watch has been issued for most of the area, except far
western counties through tomorrow morning. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to move east of the area by mid to late morning,
with mainly dry conditions through afternoon. However, may see
some isolated development over far southeast counties tomorrow
afternoon, so will keep low POPs intact for now. Expect cooler
temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

There will be a few days in the long term which we will be
monitoring for severe weather potential. Part of the Big Country is
in a marginal risk, with a small part of Throckmorton County in a
slight risk for Monday. Right now, it looks like the higher severe
threat will be to our northeast, but with the moist air mass we`ll
have in place, the high instability, and the decent shear, we can`t
rule out severe weather for Monday afternoon and evening. Wednesday
also has the potential for severe weather, mainly in our eastern
counties, once again due to very high instability. Right now, the
chances for rain and storms look low for our area and better to our
east for Wednesday, but this is something we`ll be watching. There
will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, as an 850 mb
thermal ridge starts to shift over our area and southwest/west winds
bring downsloping, warm air. A cold front is expected to bring below-
normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and 80s) for the Big Country
on Thursday and all of the area for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings will persist across the area this afternoon.
A cold front is currently moving south through the Concho Valley,
with the front just north of San Angelo at 17Z. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the front
early this afternoon, with showers/storms becoming more numerous
this afternoon and evening, then merging into a complex as it
moves east/southeast overnight. Updated the timing for convection
based on latest latest hi-res model guidance and will amend as
necessary. Expect MVFR/possible IFR ceilings to overspread the
area overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  77  65  87 /  90  20  10  10
San Angelo  62  80  65  90 /  90  40  10  10
Junction    65  82  68  87 /  90  60  10  10
Brownwood   62  77  65  84 /  90  40  10  20
Sweetwater  60  76  65  89 / 100  10  10  10
Ozona       62  78  66  87 /  90  40  10  10
Brady       62  77  67  83 /  90  50  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Haskell-Jones-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-
Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sutton-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...24