234
FXUS66 KSTO 060930
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
230 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier, warmer conditions return this week with gusty north to
east winds mid-week. Valley highs will approach and possibly
exceed the 90 deg mark by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The strong upper trough that brought winter-like weather on
Saturday has progressed eastward and will provide the trigger for
a severe weather outbreak forecast later today across portions of
the Plains. Northwest flow on the backside of the trough will
continue today with dry and milder weather expected, though
another short-wave sliding southeastward may bring a few showers
to the mountains of Shasta County later today.

By Tuesday this short-wave will drop into the Great Basin
resulting in a period of offshore/northerly surface winds for
the region as it gradually carves back into NorCal. National
Blend of Models advertises a 60 to 90 percent probability of
gusts exceeding 35-45 mph across the north wind-prone areas of
the western Sacramento Valley and northern Sierra foothills around
Butte County. While the northerly flow will occur during the
Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, current thinking is that the strongest
winds will occur on Wednesday. In addition to the gusty winds,
day-to-day warming will commence with Valley highs returning the
upper 70s/lower 80s by Wednesday, and into the mid/upper 80s on
Thursday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
EPAC upper ridge remains main synoptic feature through the
extended forecast period. As a result, dry weather expected with
above normal temperatures. High temperatures in the Central Valley
forecast in the upper 80s to lower 90s, about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal, with 60s to lower 80s for the mountains and
foothills. Locally gusty northerly to easterly wind lingers into
Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly
at below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind up to 20 kts
possible aft 00z Tue.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$