Text Products for FWS Issued by BTV

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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FNUS71 KBTV 231055
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Homer Stone Meadows ABC Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Burlington VT
655 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Widely variable cooling has taken place overnight near the site.
Some areas nearby recovered to 85 percent relative humidity
overnight. Warming should be efficient under abundant sunshine,
and relative humidity should fall towards 25 to 30 percent during
the afternoon. Winds will gradually increase during the day.
There may be some terrain based variability in the wind direction initially
due to the cooling overnight, but large scale flow should
dominate by afternoon with south wind gusts increasing to 25 mph.
After 6 PM, some moisture should begin to lift northwards, and
relative humidity values will begin to climb. After midnight,
precipitation will begin to approach the area, with widespread
rain by Wednesday morning. By the end of Wednesday, about a
quarter inch of rain is expected. Winds will shift to the
northwest behind a strong frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and
temperatures will quickly fall.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph increasing to 22 to 23
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   6   8   9   11  11  10  15  21  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............38  41  44  48  51  54  56  56  58  57
RH..............52  46  43  37  33  30  29  27  27  28
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  12  12  14  15  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.13  15  16  16  17  20  20  21  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.7 3.3 4.5 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  14  16  18  20  21  22  23  23  23
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain overnight. Chance of rain overnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  35  37  64  74  81  85  96  96  98  98  100
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  20  30  30  40  50  50
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............55  54  52  50  48  46  45  45  44  43  43  43
RH..............32  35  39  46  49  55  58  60  62  67  73  73
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..16  15  15  15  15  14  13  12  12  10  8   9
20 FT wind gust.22  21  20  20  20  17  17  16  16  14  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   SW  S   SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  14  15
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain through the day.
                    Chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 44.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 15 to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 15
                    to 23 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    increasing to around 25 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 99  99  99  99  97  97  95  90  85  80
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).50  60  70  80  80  80  80  80  80  50  40  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  42  42  44  44  44  43  43  39  34  32  29
RH..............76  82  82  82  82  82  86  79  85  85  81  85
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  9   10  13  14  15  16  17  18
20 FT wind gust.12  10  14  15  14  14  16  16  21  24  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   SW  W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  13  14  15  18  23  25  25  25
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Haynes
Requested by...Ryan Hughes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411782.1/BTV
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL gregory.switz@usda.gov,eric.hughes@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
