Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
698
FNUS74 KEPZ 092237
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for 16 Springs RX...USDA Fores Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
437 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 MDT on May 09.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry and warm with a wind shift to the northeast by early
Friday morning. Moisture will increase and give a slight chance
of showers or thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons. Wind
shift back to the west Sunday and beyond and with rapid drying.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
mph shifting to the northeast around 6 mph
after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 18 mph shifting to the northeast
around 8 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (176600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(4300 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........3 3 12 31 31 53
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............69 58 52 48 45 42
RH..............13 20 25 30 45 62
20 ft wind......SW 12 SW 12 W 6 NW 5 NW 5 NE 6
20 ft wind gust.21 18 12 13 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....8400 8400 600 600 500 500
Transport wind..W 18 W 18 W 9 W 9 NE 8 NE 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..177 177 4 4 8 8
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 8 mph shifting to the southeast 13
to 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (74600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........65 65 61 43 43 51
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 10 10
Temp............41 48 56 61 65 66
RH..............73 63 53 41 35 34
20 ft wind......NE 5 NE 5 E 7 E 9 E 9 SE 11
20 ft wind gust.10 10 14 20 20 20
Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 4300 4300 5300 5300
Transport wind..E 8 E 8 SE 13 SE 13 SE 16 SE 16
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 11 58 58 75 75
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (12800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........47 60 78 90
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 30 30
Temp............63 54 50 47
RH..............39 61 77 89
20 FT wind......SE 9G17 SE 8G16 SE 8G16 SE 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....3100 3100 1200 1400
Transport wind..E 13 E 13 SE 11 SE 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..44 44 13 15
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
the morning, then rain showers likely and
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the
south late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph increasing to southwest
around 23 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (85400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (154600
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........86 72 64
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 60
Temp............46 60 68
RH..............96 62 37
20 FT wind......SE 7G12 SE 8G15 S 10G22
Mix hgt (ft)....1700 5300 7400
Transport wind..SE 10 SW 14 SW 23
Vrate kt-ft/1K..18 85 155
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds around
10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...HEFNER
Requested by...Sacramento Ranger District
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413644.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/09/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.barone@usda.gov