Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 181000
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Seminary Branch...USFS
National Weather Service Jackson KY
600 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 EDT on April 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Well above normal temperatures will be in place one
more day, today, with highs in the lower 80s. Look for dry weather
into the late evening for the area with humidity bottoming out near
30 percent at the site during the afternoon with south to
southwest winds around 10 mph or less. A more potent low pressure
system will then track into the Ohio Valley this evening and
through the night, sending a cold front across eastern Kentucky and
bringing much higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. The front
will move south and east of the area on Friday with rain chances
ending from west to east by evening.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Dewpoint............59 decreasing to 51.
Max apparent temp...82.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 2 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (3800 knot-ft) increasing to poor (14700
                    knot-ft) late in the morning.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 27.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........73  66  60  58  36  26  15  20  15  11  18  23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............63  61  63  65  67  70  74  77  80  82  82  84
Dewpoint........61  60  61  61  60  60  58  57  56  54  52  51
RH..............93  97  93  87  78  71  57  50  44  38  35  32
Aparnt tmp (F)..63  61  63  65  67  70  74  77  80  81  81  82
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   1   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   6   7   8   8   7   8   9   9   9
Ridge wind dir..SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Ridge wind spd..2   2   2   2   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   8   8   8   7   6   5   3   3   3
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............3   9   10  15  23  26  26  27  23  21  22  22
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4   6   7   10  15  17  17  18  16  15  15  15
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    a chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0100, then 2 until 0200, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Dewpoint............53 increasing to 58 after 3 am.
Max apparent temp...82.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph late.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......South 3 to 7 mph shifting to the west around 7
                    mph late.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (1000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 16.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........16     11     27     41     87     100
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      10     50     90
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............83     77     72     68     66     64
Dewpoint........52     53     53     53     55     58
RH..............34     43     51     59     68     81
Aparnt tmp (F)..82     77     72     68     66     64
20 ft wind......S 5    SE 6   S 5    S 2    SW 5   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.10     12     10     9      13     13
Ridgetop wind...S 6    SE 7   S 6    S 3    SW 6   SW 7
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   300    300    300    300    400
Transport wind..S 3    SE 3   S 6    S 7    S 7    S 7
LVORI...........2      2      2      3      3      4
ADI.............16     2      3      3      5      5
Haines index....3      3      5      5      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11     1      2      2      2      2
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers in the morning.
                    Chance of thunderstorms through the day. Chance
                    of showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Dewpoint............60 decreasing to 56 late in the afternoon.
Max apparent temp...68.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Ridgetop wind.......Southwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest
                    8 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 10 mph shifting to the west around
                    15 mph late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the northwest in the afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Poor (300 knot-ft) increasing to marginal
                    (29400 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................1 to 40.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........100       80        92        82
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).80        60        50        30
LAL.............3         3         3         3
Temp............62        64        67        68
Dewpoint........60        61        62        59
RH..............93        90        84        73
Aparnt tmp (F)..62        64        67        68
20 FT wind......SW 6G12   SW 6G10   W 7G13    NW 7G13
Ridgetop wind...SW 7      SW 7      W 8       NW 8
Mix hgt (ft)....400       800       2200      2100
Transport wind..S 5       S 5       W 15      NW 12
LVORI...........6         6         4         3
ADI.............4         4         40        28
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         4         29        20
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...GREIF
Requested by...Michael Trent
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2411203.3/JKL
.DELDT 04/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kykic@firenet.gov,eddie.walden@usda.gov
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