Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 261142
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
742 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

South Florida sits under deep-layered high pressure centered over
the eastern United States. To the east over the Atlantic is an area
of low pressure while to the west over the southern plains is a
developing area of low pressure. The cold front associated with the
southern plains low will move eastward across the northern Gulf into
the Florida panhandle heading into Wednesday. This will pinch back
the high at both the mid levels and the Atlantic surface high.

Breezy southeasterly wind flow will continue through most of Tuesday
and Wednesday. Rain chances will remain low, though some shallow
Atlantic showers cannot be ruled out along the east coast.
Temperatures will remain warm with most areas reaching the mid to
upper 80s except for the Atlantic breeze cooled areas of the
immediate east coast. The moderating trend overnight will become a
warming trend as most areas warm a few degrees each night.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The mid-level ridge which was previously centered over the area
during the early week time-frame will begin to shift eastward into
the Atlantic as an amplified trough pushes eastward into the central
US. At the surface South Florida will be positioned between
weakening high pressure over the western Atlantic and developing low
pressure over the NE GOM/SE US, supporting light-moderate S-SE flow.

on Thursday, a weak frontal boundary will begin pushing down the
Florida peninsula which should lead to a surface wind shift from the
southeast to the southwest by the early afternoon. Maximum
temperatures could be all over the place on Thursday afternoon as
the boundary is progged to push across the area through the
afternoon. Depending on exact timing and duration of southwesterly
flow, eastern areas could reach the middle to even upper 80s on
Thursday afternoon. The general thinking regarding rain/storm
chances remains unchanged with the potential for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, with the
highest rain chances over northern portions of the area. Given the
mid-lvl wave track/amplitude and the consequent sfc. cyclogenesis
near the Carolinas, would suspect the front will be frontolytic by
the time it reaches the area limiting any severe/heavy rain threat.

For Friday through the rest of the period, cooler and drier are will
filter into the area which should prevent any measurable rainfall
through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will run just
below climo through the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, and lows ranging from the low to mid 50s near the Lake to the
low 60s near the east coast. These temperatures combined with
dewpoints generally in the 50s (potentially even lower on Friday)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The mid-level ridge which was previously centered over the area
during the early week time-frame will begin to shift eastward into
the Atlantic as an amplified trough pushes eastward into the central
US. At the surface South Florida will be positioned between
weakening high pressure over the western Atlantic and developing low
pressure over the NE GOM/SE US, supporting light-moderate S-SE flow.

on Thursday, a weak frontal boundary will begin pushing down the
Florida peninsula which should lead to a surface wind shift from the
southeast to the southwest by the early afternoon. Maximum
temperatures could be all over the place on Thursday afternoon as
the boundary is progged to push across the area through the
afternoon. Depending on exact timing and duration of southwesterly
flow, eastern areas could reach the middle to even upper 80s on
Thursday afternoon. The general thinking regarding rain/storm
chances remains unchanged with the potential for scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of the front, with the
highest rain chances over northern portions of the area. Given the
mid-lvl wave track/amplitude and the consequent sfc. cyclogenesis
near the Carolinas, would suspect the front will be frontolytic by
the time it reaches the area limiting any severe/heavy rain threat.

For Friday through the rest of the period, cooler and drier are will
filter into the area which should prevent any measurable rainfall
through the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will run just
below climo through the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s, and lows ranging from the low to mid 50s near the Lake to the
low 60s near the east coast. These temperatures combined with
dewpoints generally in the 50s (potentially even lower on Friday)

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR throughout the TAF period. Southeasterly winds prevailing at
all TAF sites with winds becoming light overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Hazardous marine conditions remain across local waters with a
moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze. Dangerous seas up to around
6 to 9 feet will be possible across the northern Atlantic waters
through Tuesday evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the northern Atlantic waters until Tuesday evening and until
late Tuesday morning for the southern Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Wednesday. While rip current conditions will improve
for the Gulf beaches today, the elevated risk will likely remain for
all Atlantic beaches through at least mid-week due to lingering
swell and increasingly easterly flow. A High Surf Advisory is in
effect for Palm Beach County beaches as large breaking waves between

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  71  83  72 /  10  10   0   0
West Kendall     83  68  85  69 /   0  10   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  69  85  72 /  10  10   0   0
Homestead        82  70  84  72 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  72  83  72 /  10  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  81  72  83  72 /  10  10  10   0
Pembroke Pines   83  69  85  71 /  10  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  81  69  83  70 /   0  10  10  10
Boca Raton       82  71  84  72 /   0  10   0  10
Naples           84  69  84  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ651-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Hadi


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