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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221615
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1215 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cold front will cross South FL today and push away from the area
tonight. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially across the east coast metro.
A shortwave moving across the area this afternoon will coincide with
peak heating, so there will be enough support for a few stronger
storms. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few storms may
contain locally damaging wind gusts. High temps this afternoon will
range from the middle 80s north of Alligator Alley to upper 80s
across the far southern peninsula.

Despite the cold front moving away from the area tonight, some
scattered coastal showers will remain possible overnight into early
Tuesday morning as drier air is slow to filter in. There will be a
wide range in temps overnight, with upper 50s over inland SW FL, to
around 70 close to the Atlantic coast.

High pressure over the SE US builds into the area for Tuesday
bringing a return of drier air to the region. NE flow is expected
which will bring cooler temps to the east coast metro, while SW FL
will remain above normal. High temps will range from the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the east coast metro to middle 80s across SW
FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

High pressure holding as we move into mid-week with generally dry
conditions across the region. A weak boundary attempts to move
into the state on Thursday but dissipates quickly with surface
high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard able to build back in to
close out the week. The high will shift south closer to Florida by
the weekend as the next low pressure and associated front pass to
the north across the northern tier of the United States into the
Atlantic off New England. Overall, the long term period should be
dry save for Atlantic showers during easterly wind flow and the
potential for sea breeze convection later in the week as moisture
returns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 704 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

SCT showers and thunderstorms are possible today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light and VRB winds early this morning
become W/NW 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts this afternoon.
After the frontal boundary crosses, winds become N/NE tonight.
Brief sub-VFR ceilings and visbys are possible in and near
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Hazardous marine conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front
crossing the area, especially in the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay where
SCA winds are expected. SCEC conditions are expected in the Gulf and
Lake Okeechobee. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the front today. Conditions improve on Tuesday, however SCA
will continue for the Atlantic waters through Tuesday evening due to
lingering high seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

There is an elevated risk of rip currents today at all South FL
beaches as a cold front crosses the area. A high risk of rip
currents is expected for the Atlantic beaches beginning on Tuesday
and lasting through much of the week as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  79  68  80 /  40  10   0   0
West Kendall     67  81  65  81 /  40  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        68  81  67  81 /  40  10   0   0
Homestead        69  81  67  81 /  40  10   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  70  78  68  79 /  30  10   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  69  78  67  79 /  30  10   0   0
Pembroke Pines   69  81  67  82 /  30  10   0   0
West Palm Beach  66  78  65  79 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       68  79  67  80 /  20  10   0   0
Naples           64  85  65  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday
     for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CMF