Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 271107
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
A mid-level ridge over the area continues to slide eastward today
as an upper level trough moves into the central US. Another warm
and mostly sunny day is expected as surface flow remains
southeasterly and will attain more of a southerly component by
this evening. The associated frontal boundary with aforementioned
system will reach northern Florida tonight and will push across
South Florida on Thursday afternoon bringing a chance for a few
showers across northern portions of the area early Thursday
morning and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon. The cold front with this incoming trough will slowly
wash out as it progresses through the Florida Peninsula, evidenced
by weakening theta-e advection in its approach. As a result,
strong convective activity is not anticipated with this system.
Nevertheless, scattered showers are still expected with this
frontal passage and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Winds
will shift from southeast to southwest through the day Thursday
and eventually northwesterly as the front pushes through.
Temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 80s across inland
South Florida with low to mid 80s along the coasts. A bit cooler
on Thursday with the anticipated frontal boundary passage so
expect highs in the lower 80s across all of South Florida.
Overnight lows will be quite warm, in the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
After the front passes by end of day on Thursday, a quiet weather
pattern will re-develop as a high pressure ridge rebuilds through
the atmospheric column over the southeast states. This ridge is
expected to last through the end of the long term period as it
amplifies due to being located downstream of a vastly deepening
trough in the southwest CONUS. Therefore, expect dry conditions
from Thursday night through the end of the long term period ending
early next week as the region will be sitting under this ridge
for an extended period.
Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Friday behind the
front with most areas approaching 80 degrees, and then a gradual
warming trend will take place each day after that as the ridge
builds over the area. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s can be
expected over the weekend and then eventually mid to upper 80s
early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Generally VFR through much of the period though some bouts of MVFR
cigs cannot be ruled out, particularly late in the period as a
cold front approaches the region. Southeasterly to southerly wind
will turn southwesterly at times in the afternoon at APF and later
in the period as the front comes closer along the east coast
terminals. Rain chances will be highest inland near Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon until the front arrives.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Hazardous marine conditions remain across portions of the local
waters with a moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze. Hazardous
seas up to around 6 to 7 feet will be possible across the northern
Atlantic waters through this evening. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the northern Atlantic waters through 8PM
this evening. Behind the frontal passage on Thursday, hazardous
conditions will return across all local waters with potential
gusts to gale force.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024
A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches today due to breezy southeasterly flow. The high risk will
likely persist through much of the remainder of this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 83 73 84 63 / 10 10 30 0
West Kendall 85 70 85 59 / 10 10 30 0
Opa-Locka 86 72 86 62 / 10 10 30 0
Homestead 84 72 85 61 / 10 10 30 0
Fort Lauderdale 82 72 83 63 / 10 10 30 0
N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 83 63 / 10 10 40 0
Pembroke Pines 85 72 86 62 / 10 10 30 0
West Palm Beach 83 71 83 62 / 10 10 40 0
Boca Raton 84 72 85 63 / 10 10 40 0
Naples 84 72 79 59 / 0 20 30 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-670.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...Hadi