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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI MAY 24 2013

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR CURRENT BREAKUP
ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

INCREASED SNOWMELT DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ON STREAMS IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR... SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHWEST CANADA.  THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD OVER ALASKA THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT 4AM... FREEZING LEVELS WERE NEAR THE SURFACE OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST MAINLAND... RISING TO BETWEEN 3800 AND 5400 FEET OVER MOST
OF THE MAINLAND... AND THEN TO 7400-8400 FEET OVER THE PANHANDLE.

SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE    PC RG :  0.17
GKGA2    GULKANA GLACIER      PC RG :  0.17
SNIA2    SNIPE LAKE           PC RG :  0.16

...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA
TODAY.  FOR SATURDAY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...

DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS.  DAY 4-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS... WITH
OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.

...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF THE MAINLAND AND THE PANHANDLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL.  A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ACL
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
