445
FNUS73 KMPX 171230
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Cabinrock Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Cabinrock Rx, any stray showers should be moving out this
morning, allowing skies to mostly clear out. Temperatures will
make a run up into the upper 80s depending on how much persistent
sunlight we see today. This would allow RH values to drop as low
as the upper 20s by this afternoon. Winds will be light this
morning, but will pick up in strength this afternoon out of the
south, with gusts up to 15-20 mph possible at times.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 86.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /93800 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (108400 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  63  68  72  76  79  82  84  84  86  85  84
RH..............75  70  61  55  50  44  37  32  29  28  30  32
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   9   9   9   10  12  13  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.13  14  15  15  15  15  17  18  20  17  15  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.2 3.8 5.0 6.7 7.2 8.0 7.4 2.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  16  14  13  12  12  15  16  17  18  20  18
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........Min 64.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 16 mph increasing to 13 to 17
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (125400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to good (41600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night decreasing to poor (6700 knot-ft) early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    west 17 to 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (107800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (98000
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 18 mph shifting to the west 22 to
                    30 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dettmann
Requested by...Area Wildlife Supervisor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414497.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.netland@state.mn.us