Text Products for FWS Issued by AKQ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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FNUS71 KAKQ 151619
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1219 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
igh pressure over the Southeast coast becomes anchored over the
western Atlantic early this week. A front drops south through the
area this afternoon and evening, bringing a chance of thunderstorms.
Ahead of the front, winds will be westerly, becoming erratic and
gusty in and around thunderstorms by late afternoon into the
evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (106200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 120 in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   5   4   6   8   11  18  25  32
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20
Temp............70  76  81  83  84  86  86  86  86
RH..............49  43  33  32  31  29  30  32  34
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   7   7   8   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.8   11  12  12  12  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  13  12  12  15  17  20
LVORI...........2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............15  31  50  63  71  82  102 120 120
Haines index....5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10  22  35  46  54  65  81  98  106
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph decreasing to 3 to 7 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest 2 to 5 mph overnight shifting to the
                    north 8 to 12 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (64300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................88 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42  51  60  58  55  53  46  39  32  36  39  43
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  60  60  50  50  30  30  10  10  10  0
Temp............83  80  76  72  69  67  66  65  63  62  61  61
RH..............38  42  52  59  66  73  75  78  84  87  90  87
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  S   SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N
20 FT wind spd..7   6   5   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4
20 FT wind gust.12  11  8   8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.17  13  9   7   7   6   3   2   2   5   8   12
LVORI...........1   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   5
ADI.............88  9   6   5   3   3   2   1   1   2   3   5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64  27  3   3   2   2   1   1   1   2   3   4
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 9
                    to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (32600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 to 47.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........42     39     42     46     52     57
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     20     20
Temp............60     60     67     73     75     77
RH..............87     84     61     46     41     36
20 ft wind......N 4    NE 5   NE 6   E 6    E 7    E 6
20 ft wind gust.6      8      11     11     12     11
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1000   2100   2900   3600   3200
Transport wind..NE 15  NE 21  NE 17  E 13   E 10   E 9
LVORI...........5      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............7      26     45     46     45     36
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8      18     31     32     32     25
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410808.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
