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000
FXUS61 KALY 211704
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
HUMID AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WITH
MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A COLD FRONT
RETURNS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

AS 100 PM EDT...THE AIR MASS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY PM WITH TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPS...AND ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
FIRING OVER WRN-CNTRL NY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE MID AND
U80S OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THERE MAYBE A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 90F TOO NEAR KPOU.
ELSEWHERE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE U70S TO M80S.

ALSO...SFC DEWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND U60S OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE FCST. THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES
SBCAPES HAVE REACHED 2000-3000+ J/KG FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
SOUTH AND EAST. MUCH LESS INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. THE 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE SRN ZONES WITH LESS THAN 20
KTS...BUT TO THE NORTH THE SHEAR VALUES ARE 30-35 KTS.
THEREFORE...BETTER...DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...IS POSSIBLE FROM
THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH...WITH PULSE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE APPROACHING THE 6.5 C/KM RANGE. IT
APPEARS THE GREATER THREAT WOULD BE WIND...BUT WE WILL MENTION
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR NOW...AND UPGRADE IF WE GET A
CONVECTIVE WATCH.

NOW...UPSTREAM...A POSSIBLE REMNANT MCV IS MOVING ACROSS SE
ONTARIO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION /ASIDE FROM THE PULSE
CONVECTION/. THE 12Z KALB SOUNDING DOES INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP
BTWN 500-550 HPA THAT WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER.

AT THIS POINT THINKING IS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE /5 OR LESS
REPORTS/...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE. THE LATEST
HIRES WRF INDICATES ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
OVER THE NRN TIER TOWARDS 00Z/WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EVENING LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS
THE SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY SVR THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHED...BUT
THUNDER SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD AND
MUGGY WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. DESPITE THE WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THERE LOOKS TO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AS
A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA BY AFTN.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...ESP WITH
WARM TEMPS REACHING THE 80S IN MOST AREAS...AND TDS IN THE MID 60S
F. ANY STORM WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...AND SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR STORMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AS
WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MINS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE SOME STEADY EASTWARD
PROGRESS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THIS FRONT WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FOR THURSDAY
AFTN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE
ONE LAST WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS
WILL START TO COOL OFF BY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THE BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH...WITH MINS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN NY AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE SHOULD BE DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING WITH A TIGHT THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE FOR ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND THE
MID 60S TO AROUND 70...BUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS GONE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
LINGERING CLOUDINESS COULD AFFECT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...UPPER 50S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND ON
MONDAY...HIGHS AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TYPICAL EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AFFECTING ALL SITES
AND SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR...EXCEPT
BY 16Z AT KPSF. THERE IS ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE ONTARIO THAT COULD APPROACH KGFL LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TOO EARLY AND TOO ISOLATED
TO MENTION IN TAF AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN PUTTING A VCSH.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING COULD AFFECT OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER TO TRACK THIS FAR EAST.  AGAIN...DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES...JUST PUTTING VCSH AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATER IN THE EVENING...SOME FOG AND LOW CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY FORM WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KT OR LESS
TODAY...THEN DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR/MVFR CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTN.
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. AT KGFL AND KALB -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY. AT
KPSF AND KPOU CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
THU...MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY.
THU NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA ESPECIALLY IN THE EVNG.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA MAINLY IN THE AM.
SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT...AND RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY STAY
ABOVE 50 PERCENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO SERVICE AREAS PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5
DAYS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAINFALL MAY OCCUR TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. 3-HR ZONAL FFG VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 2.4-3.1 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME...WHICH ARE HIGH
FOR MID TO LATE MAY.

DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS WEEK. THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT/S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
EXACT AMOUNTS...GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER /WPC/
SUGGESTS THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND AN INCH
AND A HALF OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/LFM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA