Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
151 FXUS63 KMKX 051944 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 244 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - On again/off again showers and storms Tuesday through Thursday. Monitoring the potential for scattered strong storms mid afternoon to early evening Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Tonight and Monday: High pressure will move into Michigan tonight so light winds are expected. A shortwave moving across southern Wisconsin may bring some mid level clouds overnight. Seeing less potential for valley fog tonight. Light southeast winds will prevail on Monday as the high moves over Lake Huron. Mid level ridging will set up in the wake of the shortwave and skies will be mostly clear. A few cumulus may develop in the afternoon with highs around 70. Lake shore areas will be a little cooler with winds off the lake. Marquardt && .LONG TERM... Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Tuesday through Sunday: An unsettled weather pattern sets up across the region Tuesday and persists in an on again/off again fashion into next weekend. Tuesday features an occluding low over the Dakotas with an associated occluded front sliding into the region from the southwest. The entire suite of ensembles indicate an expansive band of rain and embedded thunder along/ahead of this boundary, entering southwestern WI by daybreak and spreading over the remainder of southern WI through midday Tuesday. With rainfall progressively running out ahead of the primary forcing, this band of rainfall looks to be weakening, if not trying to fall apart to some extent. Trends from the GEFS/EPS/GEPS indicate a general quarter inch of rainfall (give or take), with localized higher totals beneath embedded thunder and localized lower amounts where lift decreases quicker. All ensemble systems are rightfully shifting higher confidence of greater than one half inch of rain back into MN and closer to the main areas of forcing. The question for Tuesday afternoon becomes, can enough heating be mustered to reignite scattered storms during the mid afternoon into early evening hours. The GEFS and NAM support redevelopment while the EPS and GEPS, overall, do not. This is a mesoscale forecast problem that will need to be monitored. If storms do not refire late Tuesday afternoon, there will be a break in rain until later Wednesday. On Wednesday, a piece of energy from the stacked low over the Dakotas will break off and slide to the east southeast. This initiates weak cyclogenesis in eastern Iowa, that subsequently slides across northern IL/IN/OH by early Thursday. This puts our area on the cooler more stable side of the system, though will ample opportunity for additional showers. Onset timing is late afternoon/early evening Wednesday, persisting in an on again/off again fashion through Thursday. This looks to set up quiet day on Friday. Next weekend, model spread increases substantially. There is some consensus on a wave moving through northwest flow on Saturday bringing another round of showers and cooler temperatures. Solutions diverge as the GEFS/GEPS develop a slower, more closed solution, while the EPS keeps a faster moving open wave. Temperature-wise, expect above average readings Tuesday and Wednesday, with at or below average readings from Thursday into next weekend. Gagan Marquardt && .AVIATION... Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected through Monday. East winds will be 10 knots or less. Some mid level clouds will move through overnight. There will be a few clouds with bases around 4000 ft during the day on Monday. Marquardt && .MARINE... Issued 240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 High pressure of will move into Michigan tonight. Light winds will become easterly tonight. In the nearshore, east to southeast winds will increase to around 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday with waves 3 to 5 feet. The trend in winds has been downward so will hold off on a small craft advisory at this time. Showers and storms are expected on Tuesday along a front. It will stall across the lake bringing variable winds on Wednesday. East to northeast winds will increase Wednesday night. Small craft conditions may be reached on Thursday. Marquardt && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee