Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 240820
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ESEWD
TODAY AND TNT. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND IT WITH
ONE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS SRN WI FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
AND MOVE ACROSS SRN WI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS ALL EQUATES TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DEVELOP
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP 925
MB TEMPS AT 10-13C WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FOR
TNT...WENT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING CLOUD TREND WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING BUT WILL CERTAINLY HANG ON TO SOME CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR BELOW 50F.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

TUESDAY WILL BE LESS WINDY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO
FINALLY MOVES OUT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING QUIET WEATHER TO
SOUTHERN WI. PLAN ON HIGHS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... THEN WARMING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THURSDAY. A LAKE
BREEZE IS EXPECTED WED AND THU WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THROUGH
SOUTHERN WI AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. INSTABILITY APPEARS WEAK FOR THIS
EVENT... BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD BE DECENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO SOUTHERN WI
SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN A WARMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS WILL FORM OVER THE TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING OR VERY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AND COLD AIR ALOFT. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM 3.5-5.0 KFT. THE
CIGS WILL LINGER AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY LONGER.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR BREEZY
AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. A LARGE OCCLUDED LOW WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS WI AND LAKE MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TNT
AND LOSS OF HEATING AND MIXING WILL BRING THE WINDS DOWN FOR TNT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC


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