Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221443 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
943 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD
FOR PRECIP IS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AT NOON.

OTHER THAN SOME LOWER VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS AND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM MO TO IL WILL SLOWLY TRACK
NEWD TODAY INTO THE EVENING BUT A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE
SKIES MO CLEAR OVER SRN WI. MEANWHILE A FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL TRACK FROM WRN SD INTO WRN ONTARIO CANADA AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM MT TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUFFICIENTLY FOR
BREEZY SSELY WINDS TODAY. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C AND FAIRLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S ONCE
AGAIN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER FAR ERN WI VIA THE LAKE
BREEZE.

FOR TNT...A SVR LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER MN AND IA
DURING THE EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. MESOSCALE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE LINE OF
STORMS AFTER 05Z AS THE PCPN MOVES INTO SRN WI. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AS THE WARM SECTOR AND AREA OF HIGHEST CAPE SHRINKS.
MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG STILL EXPECTED WITH PWS RISING TO 1.6
INCHES. STILL WENT WITH 50-70 POPS ACROSS THE AREA VIA HEIGHT
FALLS FROM PVA AND LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. THEY BRING THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA...WITH THE MAIN CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING AS WELL.

CONTINUED HIGH END POPS FOR THE EARLY MORNING...DECREASING WEST
TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER FOR
NOW...WITH THE NAM HANGING ONTO SOME MEAN LAYER CAPE AND THE GFS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR THEN PUSHES INTO THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH ROBUST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE AREA REMAINING WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SUPPORT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
500 MB LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME SIMILAR TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY
TAKE THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS
PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODIFYING THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD AND INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY WOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

MO CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THE EVENING WITH A
DRY SSELY FLOW IN PLACE. A MOIST SLY FLOW THEN DEVELOPS LATE TNT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF 1.0-3.0 KFT CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

MARINE...

A RELATIVELY COOL SELY FLOW TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE WIND GUSTS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THERE MAY THEN BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BREEZY SLY WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUN
AM THAT COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE MORE
CERTAIN PERIOD OF BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL MEET SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS SUN AFT AFTER FROPA WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD


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