Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170208
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
908 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures prevail into Monday.

- Scattered light snow showers, with little to no accumulation,
  remain possible on Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Skies have scattered out behind the departing cold front, with
a few areas also seeing a break from the gusty winds late this
evening. This clearing trend and window of relaxed winds is
expected to be short-lived, as an area of stratus upstream of
the region continues to dive southeast towards central and
southern Wisconsin. Along with this stratus will come a tighter
surface pressure gradient and pocket of colder air aloft,
favoring the return of gusty northwest winds overnight and into
Sunday.

With the aforementioned pocket of colder air moving overhead on
Sunday and the western extend of troughing over the region
digging across the area, soundings continue to show the moisture
and lift focused within the DGZ. So while the snow showers
are not expected to amount of much, still expect to see some
light snow shower activity. The colder air a loft and mixing
processes will also lead to another day with gusty northwest
winds.

Anderson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

The cold front has exited se WI after temps rose into the upper
50s over said region. Post frontal broken stratocumulus has
developed via cold air aloft with some virga toward central WI.
The cold front is associated with a large low pressure area
through the depth of the troposphere moving ewd across Ontario.
As it moves into srn Quebec late tnt and Sunday, shortwave
troughs will traverse through the nwly flow aloft over the
region.

Brisk nwly winds and cold advection will continue tnt, while
another shortwave trough moves across srn WI toward Sun AM into
the early afternoon. Kept the 20 percent chances for lgt snow
over ern WI but flurries will be possible to the west as well.
The incoming polar airmass will drop temps into the 20s by
sunrise Sun with high temps only in the middle to upper 30s.
Broken stratocumulus will likely remain over much of srn WI Sun
into Mon AM as the large upper trough extending from the large
low over Quebec is slow to move away.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 322 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Monday through Saturday:

Polar high pressure over the Great Plains Mon will move to the
Gulf Coast states for Mon nt-Tue. Meanwhile a weak shortwave
trough will move across WI Mon AM followed by height rises and
increasing warm advection later in the day and night. This is in
response to an organized trough of low pressure approaching from
the nrn Great Plains and Canada. Thus breezy swly winds will
briefly bring a milder airmass into srn WI for Mon nt-Tue, with
the dry cold frontal passage for Tue AM. Brisk nwly winds will
then bring a return of polar air.

From the middle of the week into the weekend the ensemble means
reorient the 500 mb flow from nwly to quasi-zonal. The warm,
moist advection associated with this change may bring a period
of light snow for late on Thu possibly into Fri. Other than mild
temps on Tue, slightly below normal temps are expected for the
week.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR stratocu have scattered out this evening. A fairly
widespread area of stratus is currently moving southeast across
Minnesota and will move in later tonight and during the morning
hours on Sunday. There is a pretty good punch of drier low-level
air arriving with the incoming stratus, thus these ceilings are
expected to remain VFR. As some cooler air aloft arrives
tomorrow afternoon, scattered light snow showers remain
possible during the late morning and afternoon hours. Little in
the way of snowfall accumulation is expected.

Gusty west-northwest winds have relaxed at times this evening,
as a weak secondary, surface trough slides through. However,
breezy northwest winds are expected to mostly persist overnight
and through the day on Sunday.

Anderson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 908 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Evening Update: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
nearshore waters. This Advisory was extended until 10 PM Sunday,
as gusty northwest winds are expected to persist through much
of the day and evening hours on Sunday as well.

Low pressure around 29.3 inches will continue across Ontario
tonight and into Quebec on Sunday, while polar high pressure
settles into the Great Plains for Sunday night and Monday. This
pattern will maintain brisk northwest winds across Lake Michigan
this weekend into Monday morning.

Gehring/Anderson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 10 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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