Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250359
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1059 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...The showers may linger for a few more hours over far SE
WI and N IL as a narrow band of 925-850 mb warm, moist advection
continues. This area is also on the northern end of a shortwave
trough that is over E IL. Otherwise, areas of fog will develop
especially over areas where appreciable rainfall occurred.

Showers and thunderstorms will then become likely Wed afternoon
as a shortwave trough and warm front moves across the region. A 30
kt sswly LLJ will aid the push of the warm front northward with
the associated moisture transport and warm advection. Believe
there will be some sunshine at least in the morning with MLCAPEs
rising to 1500 J/KG ahead of the convection along with 0-6 km bulk
shear of 30 kts. The Marginal Risk may have to be expanded
eastward given these CAPE and shear values.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Light winds and mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies will lead to fog development for the early morning
hours of Wed. Visibility will drop to 2-5sm but locally 1sm or
less where appreciable rain fell. The heavier fog will likely have
a cig below 1 kft with it. The fog should burn off fairly quickly
later in the morning. A warm front and upper level disturbance
will then bring numerous showers and tstorms for the afternoon and
possibly evening. Fog will once again develop late Wed night given
the moist conditions. Prevailing cigs for Wed afternoon and
evening will range from 4-6 kft but with greatly reduced cigs and
vsbys within thunderstorms.


&&

.MARINE...Relatively light winds and low wave heights through at
least Thu. A humid airmass flowing over the cold waters of Lake MI
will likely lead to areas of fog over the lake at times this week.
It may become dense at times with visibility of 1 mile or less.


&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gehring
TONIGHT/Wednesday AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood
Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday...REM



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