Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 181700
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...Ongoing forecast is on track. No need for changes at
this time.

PC

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR mostly SKC this period. LLWS setup time
with some stronger winds remaining aloft associated with a wind
max ahead of and slightly behind a trough. Winds shift to the WNW
for a time after trough passage. Then a bubble of high pressure
settles in for Thursday morning which slowly shifts off to the
east Thursday afternoon.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 934 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017)

UPDATE...Ongoing forecast is on track. No need for changes at
this time.

PC

MARINE...South to southwest winds picking up. Gusts in the 15 to
20 knot range. Expect winds to increase further with subsequent
buildup in wave action. Highest waves towards open waters and
towards Sheboygan.

PC

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017)

UPDATE...Forecast is on track for today and tonight. Breezy and
mild.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...A swly 45-50 kt LLJ will develop early this
evening and exit srn WI from 05z to 07z late tnt. Thus LLWS is
likely once again. Otherwise, winds will gust around 25 kts from
late this morning through the afternoon. Mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies will continue with VFR conditions, although fog may
form early Thu AM in the WI River Valley.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 330 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

A shortwave trough will track across srn WI and nrn IL from late
this morning through the afternoon. Too dry for clouds or precip.
but it will contribute to the pressure falls and gusty winds
through the day. The breezy sswly winds will maintain a mild
airmass over the region with the low level thermal ridge settling
over the area this afternoon into the early evening. Went with
high temps similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. A dry and
weak cold front will then pass tonight with perhaps scattered
clouds with its passage. The winds will become light late tonight
as a ridge of high pressure approaches from the west. Areas of fog
are possible in the WI River Valley.

LONG TERM...

Thursday and Friday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will bring continued pleasant weather to southern
Wisconsin to end the work week, with mostly sunny skies and above
normal temperatures expected. Bumped temps up Friday a fair
amount above most models, as model surface temps aren`t reflective
of the very mild airmass aloft.

Saturday and Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high:

Low pressure and an associated cold front will approach the area
on Saturday, with models in fair agreement in the trough/front
passage Saturday night. Pretty good surge of moisture ahead of
this system, with model precipitable water values rising to around
1.50 inches. Decent forcing with this system too, so feel good
with likely precip chances for now. Best chance for showers and a
few storms will be Sat evening into Sunday morning.

Saturday looks mainly dry during the day, so mild temperatures are
likely. May not have gone warm enough if the sun is out for a
while given the 925 mb temps. Temps will be cooler on Sunday
behind the departing system.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models show a potent broad trough pushing through the area early
next week. Decent confidence that there will be showers at times
as impulses rotate through the trough, but not great agreement in
models with the timing and placement of these waves. Thus just
have some low end precip chances Mon and Tue.

Temps will be near to a little above normal Monday ahead of the
main trough, with below normal temps likely Tue on the back side
of the system.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Areas of LLWS is possible through 12z this
morning via a swly 35 kt LLJ. A swly 45-50 kt LLJ will then
develop early this evening and exit srn WI from 05z to 08z late
tnt. Thus LLWS is likely once again. Otherwise, winds will gust
around 25 kts from late this morning through the afternoon. Mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies will continue with VFR conditions,
although fog may form early Thu AM in the WI River Valley.

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today and tonight
for breezy sswly winds and increasing wave heights. Waves of 3-6
feet is forecast north of Port Washington with 2-4 feet from Port
Washington to Winthrop Harbor IL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Gehring
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...DDV


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