000
FXUS63 KMKX 162028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT FOR MOST OF COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN SD/NE AREA RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD. APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE THE USUAL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
IN LOWER LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE
TO ONLY THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM BARABOO TO SHEBOYGAN.

UPSTAIRS TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST MOST
OF PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING SHOULD GENERATE CAPE VALUES OF 900 TO 1200 AND -6 KM BULK
SHEAR GETS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. SO STRONG TO
POSSIBLY LINEAR SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS/HAIL IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH LIKELY WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
PARTS OF CWA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
SRN WI EARLY MON EVENING. DO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO SLIGHTLY
ACCELERATE DOWN THE LAKE AND MOVE INLAND BUT A LACK OF A
SUFFICIENT N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INHIBIT A FAST MOVING
PNEUMONIA FRONT.

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN
MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...DRY MID
LEVEL AIR...AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 8.5-9.0 KFT. A REGION OF
ELEVATED MOISTURE AND ELEVATED CAPE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 06Z SO DRY AFTER ITS PASSAGE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE AM.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GRTLKS ON TUE WILL
SHIFT INTO THE ERN GRTLKS FOR WED AND THU. AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL
DAY ON TUE...A WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE ON SSELY WINDS. 925-850 MB
TEMPS WILL WARM 2-3C EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING 80F WELL
INLAND BY THU.



.LONG TERM...

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL FILL DURING THIS
TIME AND SLOWLY LIFT INTO SW CANADA. THUS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS WILL FLATTEN WITH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A N-S PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS WI ON
SAT VIA GFS AND ECMWF. CHANCES OF TSTORMS WILL BEGIN ON FRI WITH
THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. GOOD
CHANCES OF TSTORMS FOR SAT AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. A W-E
STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FOR SUN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MCS/S ALONG IT.
WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THIS
TIME.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE TONIGHT NORTH OF
MADISON TO MILWAUKEE AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM EXPECTED ON
MONDAY APPROACHES. SOME MODELS HINT AT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TONIGHT NORTH OF MADISON/MILWAUKEE AREA...WHILE OTHERS HOLD OFF
UNTIL MONDAY/S COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. IN ANY CASE...MOSTLY VFR UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE....

OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AND WAVES BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR SWITCH TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN 10-20 KNOT RANGE. LACK OF
DECENT PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTHERN WI OR UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY
SUGGEST FRONT WILL NOT SURGE...AS A PNEUMONIA FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...OR EVEN
HIGHER. HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...KAPELA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING