Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 290819
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

A FEW AREAS DROPPING TO BELOW 1/2 MILE YET AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
IN FOG.

A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A BAND OF WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION.
DOWNWARD MOTION TONIGHT BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.  A BAND OF
HIGHER 700 MB RH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPWARD MOTION.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 9.5 CELSIUS/KM
TO 700 MB JUST AFTER THE COLD FRONT WITH CAPE AROUND 350 JOULES/KM.
THEN THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR CREATES A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WITH
ELEVATED CAPE OF 300 JOULES/KM TOWARD EARLY EVENING.  THEREFORE
EXPECT A BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM.

IN THE SOUTH AREAS EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WHILE THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT QUITE REACH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES OF YESTERDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  EXPECT
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STRATUS
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT/WAVE
TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS LINGER...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING TOWARD THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. MOST PLACES
SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

UPPER TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. STILL
LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER. TEMPS
WED/THU SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL...MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
AXIS PUSHES THROUGH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY...THOUGH
COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...AS A SHORTWAVE
OR TWO ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE.

NORTHWEST FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SOME FROST ONE
OF TWO OF THESE NIGHTS IF THE COOLER MODELS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING WILL AGAIN BE WITH EARLY MORNING FOG
WITH SOME IFR AND PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE A MOSTLY VFR PERIOD LATER THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A BAND OF POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ALONG WITH
MVFR CIGS.

SOME IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF FOG AGAIN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE THROUGH THE NEARSHORE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. ADVISORY STARTS AT 1 PM CDT FOR THE NORTHERN 2
ZONES...AND AT 3 PM CDT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE. WILL SEE HIGH
WAVES BUILDING TO 3 TO 6 FEET BY EARLY EVENING...AND LASTING AT
LEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING...EVEN THOUGH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND
DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


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