Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 132008
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

LOW CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING BECAME MAINLY
BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET...AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MIXES OUT THE
CLOUDS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE THAT THEY WOULD LINGER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER. IF CLOUDS
MENTIONED EARLIER DO MIX OUT...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE BY SUNDAY...SO
JUST SOME GROUND FOG IN LOW SPOTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MAY
SEE MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS
NORTHWEST OF MADISON.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR IT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
WARMER WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION...REACHING THE MIDDLE 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM CANADA INTO
THE NRN PLAINS ON SUN AND THROUGH S WI ON MON. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MON.
THE OVERALL LIFT AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED FROM
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

PWS WILL INCREASE TO 0.80-1.00 INCHES SUN NT INTO MON. 850-600 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND SUPPORTING PVA IS NOW MORE ORGANIZED WITH MOST
MODELS BRINING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF S WI FROM MON AM
INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF LGT RAIN SUN
NT AS INITIAL BANDS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FORM.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO TAKE HOLD MON NT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z TUE. THUS LOW TEMPS MAY
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL AWAY FROM FAR E WI. HIGH PRESSURE TO
MOVE ACROSS IA AND IL ON TUE WITH DRY WLY WINDS AND PLEASANT
TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OR IN THE VICINITY OF WI. BELOW NORMAL...BUT PLEASANT TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL. SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR FRI AND SAT
AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. IT APPEARS THE
MOISTURE RETURN...LIFT AND RAIN WILL STAY TO THE WEST THROUGH
SAT...DESPITE THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z ECMWF. HIGH TEMPS WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE 70S FOR FRI- SAT.


&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MAINLY BROKEN VFR DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
HERE...AS THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT THEY COULD LINGER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR MADISON.

LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA...WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO THE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY GROUND FOG WILL BE LIMITED
TO LOW LYING AREAS AND LEFT OUT OF TAFS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING


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