Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 060836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TODAY.  AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TOWARD EVENING.  700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS
OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO
ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6
CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY
MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY
EVENING.

ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE
GFS BY MID AFTERNOON.  ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE
HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES.  THEREFORE THE
LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.
CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA.
THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST.

.TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS
OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY.

MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD
OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN
POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS
NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR
IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR
A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL
LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING
UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND
POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.

THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.BEACHES...

BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO
LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ052-060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV


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